Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 52 pts · 23 played
WWWWD
2–3Full time
Bayern München
1st · 60 pts · 23 played
LDWWW
Our take
Bayern München were slight favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 81). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayern München. Borussia Dortmund had 7 days of rest, Bayern München 7.1 and had to travel 477 km.
Away travel477 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Dortmund24%
Draw20%
Bayern München57%
Borussia Dortmund27%
Draw26%
Bayern München47%
Borussia Dortmund24%
Draw20%
Bayern München56%
Borussia Dortmund17%
Draw17%
Bayern München65%
Borussia Dortmund24%
Draw22%
Bayern München54%
Over 2.5 76%
Both score 72%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 100
Team strength
Borussia DortmundBayern München
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
69
AttackIn forecast
96
80
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundBayern München
2.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.70
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
2.68
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+1.02
100%
Scored inContext
100%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
12.83
ShotsContext
18.52
4.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.52
36%
On target shareContext
46%
9.13
Shots in the boxContext
12.74
73%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
20%
1.87
OffsidesContext
2.59
10.26
Shots allowedContext
9.57
3.36
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.55
2.71
BlocksContext
3.21
2.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
73%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
488
PassesContext
686
412
Accurate passesContext
619
84%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.20
11.09
FoulsContext
9.04
10.43
Fouls sufferedContext
8.35
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.74
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
2.83
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
17.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.70
33%
On target shareContext
51%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
66%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
20%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.20
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.60
BlocksContext
2.67
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
64%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
456
PassesContext
656
374
Accurate passesContext
592
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.19
11.50
FoulsContext
8.40
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
7.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km681 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel477 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 477 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 681 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
23E. Can
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
20M. Sabitzer
2Yan Couto
27K. Adeyemi
14M. Beier
21Fábio Silva
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
27K. Laimer
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
44J. Stanišić
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Bayern München+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-0
- Scored
- 2.36
- Conceded
- 0.73
Bayern München · Away
2.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-0
- Scored
- 3.36
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 8–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 4–0 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | W 6–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–0 H | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | W 5–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 52 of 66 · 2.36 per game | 57 of 66 · 2.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Borussia Dortmund wins3 draws5 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.44 – 2.33
Over 2.578%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 18 Oct 2025Bayern München2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 12 Apr 2025Bayern München2–2Borussia Dortmund
- 30 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayern München
- 30 Mar 2024Bayern München0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 4 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund0–4Bayern München
- 1 Apr 2023Bayern München4–2Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.13 | 3.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 3.09 | 4.61 | 4.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 100% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 74% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 3.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 100% | 76% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 6.05 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.32 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 9.59 | 9.62 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 3.48 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.30 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 100 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.80
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls20.2league 20.7
Penalties0.17league 0.36
Home wins42%league 46%
Borussia Dortmund10 with this referee
Record6-1-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W19 Dec 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–02
- D30 Nov 24H · Bayern München1–12
- L9 Dec 23H · RB Leipzig2–32
- W25 Nov 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–21
- W23 Sep 23H · VfL Wolfsburg1–00
Bayern München11 with this referee
Record8-3-0
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W22 Nov 25H · SC Freiburg6–21
- W10 May 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–01
- D30 Nov 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–12
- W20 Apr 24A · Union Berlin5–10
- D1 Mar 24A · SC Freiburg2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund23 games · scored 49 · conceded 22
6
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
15
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
7
5
61-75
13
7
76-90
Bayern München23 games · scored 85 · conceded 21
6
3
0-15
17
3
16-30
15
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
14
2
61-75
25
7
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 34 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
7
1
46-60
7
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
