Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 55 pts · 25 played
WWDLW
2–0Full time
FC Augsburg
9th · 31 pts · 25 played
LWWWL
Borussia Dortmund62.7%fair odds 1.59
Draw20.3%fair odds 4.92
FC Augsburg17.0%fair odds 5.90
Expected goals2.24 – 1.09total 3.33
Likeliest score2–19.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · FC Augsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns FC Augsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%10.21
- 1–19.2%10.84
- 2–09.0%11.16
- 1–07.6%13.24
- 3–17.3%13.71
- 3–06.7%14.98
- 2–25.3%18.70
- 1–24.8%20.90
- 4–14.1%24.52
- 0–04.0%24.70
Winning margin
21.6%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 4.63
18.9%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 5.29
22.2%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.50
20.3%
Draw
fair 4.92
10.6%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 9.40
4.5%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 22.17
1.8%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 55.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
FC Augsburg goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 62.7% | 61.0% | +1.8 pp |
| Draw | 20.3% | 21.6% | -1.3 pp |
| FC Augsburg win | 17.0% | 17.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 60.0% | +4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.8% | 56.7% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.24 | 2.08 | +0.16 |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.09 | 1.03 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win62.7%1.59
- Draw20.3%4.92
- FC Augsburg win17.0%5.90
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw83.0%1.20
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or FC Augsburg79.7%1.25
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw37.3%2.68
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund78.7%1.27
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg21.3%4.70
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.584.9%1.18
- Over 2.564.6%1.55
- Over 3.542.6%2.35
- Over 4.524.3%4.12
- Under 1.515.1%6.64
- Under 2.535.4%2.83
- Under 3.557.4%1.74
Both teams to score
- Yes59.8%1.67
- No40.2%2.49
- Yes and over 2.550.6%1.98
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes33.2%3.01
- Draw and yes16.3%6.15
- FC Augsburg win and yes10.3%9.69
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.589.3%1.12
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.565.4%1.53
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.538.7%2.58
- FC Augsburg over 0.566.5%1.50
- FC Augsburg over 1.529.8%3.35
- FC Augsburg over 2.59.8%10.19
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet33.5%2.98
- FC Augsburg clean sheet10.7%9.35
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil29.5%3.39
- FC Augsburg win to nil6.6%15.06
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.540.5%2.47
- Borussia Dortmund −2.521.6%4.63
- FC Augsburg +1.559.5%1.68
- FC Augsburg +2.578.4%1.28
- FC Augsburg −1.56.3%15.81
- Borussia Dortmund +1.593.7%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored226
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 31 | 38.3% | 38.7% |
| 40–50% | 68 | 45.0% | 44.1% |
| 50–60% | 64 | 55.2% | 62.5% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.5% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.2% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 85.9% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 187 of 226 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5528 | 0.5475 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.6% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 57.8% | 58.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Hamburger SV40·25·35
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- ✓Bayern München 4–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach87·9·4
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 226 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.