Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 55 pts · 25 played
WWDLW
2–0Full time
FC Augsburg
9th · 31 pts · 25 played
LWWWL
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Augsburg. Borussia Dortmund had 6.9 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and had to travel 427 km.
Away travel427 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Borussia Dortmund63%
Draw20%
FC Augsburg17%
Borussia Dortmund69%
Draw19%
FC Augsburg12%
Borussia Dortmund63%
Draw20%
FC Augsburg17%
Borussia Dortmund55%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg23%
Borussia Dortmund61%
Draw22%
FC Augsburg17%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 75
Team strength
Borussia DortmundFC Augsburg
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
69
AttackIn forecast
72
80
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundFC Augsburg
2.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
100%
Scored inContext
72%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.72
ShotsContext
12.40
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.16
36%
On target shareContext
34%
9.16
Shots in the boxContext
7.54
73%
Box shareContext
61%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.35
10.56
Shots allowedContext
13.04
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.46
2.87
BlocksContext
4.41
2.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
72%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
484
PassesContext
398
408
Accurate passesContext
318
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.24
FoulsContext
11.24
10.36
Fouls sufferedContext
11.32
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
35%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
72%
Box shareContext
60%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.60
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.80
BlocksContext
4.44
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
441
PassesContext
407
361
Accurate passesContext
328
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.00
FoulsContext
10.30
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km148 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel427 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 427 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 148 km | 693 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
49Luca Reggiani
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
27K. Adeyemi
20M. Sabitzer
14M. Beier
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
31K. Schlotterbeck
34Arthur Chaves
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
21Rodrigo Ribeiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FC Augsburg+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.92
FC Augsburg · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-8
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–6 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 52 of 72 · 2.17 per game | 31 of 72 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws2 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.11
Over 2.556%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 31 Oct 2025FC Augsburg0–1Borussia Dortmund
- 8 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund0–1FC Augsburg
- 26 Oct 2024FC Augsburg2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 4 May 2024Borussia Dortmund5–1FC Augsburg
- 16 Dec 2023FC Augsburg1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 21 May 2023FC Augsburg0–3Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.12 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 3.16 | 2.96 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 28% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.90 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 4.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.42 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.56 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 10/24 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 7/24 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 2.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 1.72 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 4.36 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.40 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 3.72
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+32%league 38%
Fouls23.5league 20.6
Penalties0.25league 0.37
Home wins47%league 46%
Borussia Dortmund4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Oct 25A · Bayern München1–24
- W22 Feb 25H · Union Berlin6–02
- D2 Feb 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–02
- W13 Mar 22H · Arminia Bielefeld1–01
FC Augsburg6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D7 Dec 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–22
- L19 Oct 24A · SC Freiburg1–31
- W25 Feb 24H · SC Freiburg2–13
- L6 Aug 22H · SC Freiburg0–40
- L8 May 22A · RB Leipzig0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund25 games · scored 53 · conceded 26
6
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
15
2
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
6
61-75
14
9
76-90
FC Augsburg25 games · scored 31 · conceded 43
3
4
0-15
3
9
16-30
6
9
31-45
8
7
46-60
2
7
61-75
9
7
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
