Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 36 pts · 17 played
WDWDW
3–2Full time
FC St. Pauli
17th · 12 pts · 16 played
LDWDL
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 25). Borussia Dortmund had 3.8 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 2.9 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days3.8 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Borussia Dortmund83%
Draw11%
FC St. Pauli5%
Borussia Dortmund81%
Draw13%
FC St. Pauli6%
Borussia Dortmund83%
Draw12%
FC St. Pauli5%
Borussia Dortmund77%
Draw15%
FC St. Pauli8%
Borussia Dortmund81%
Draw13%
FC St. Pauli6%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 95
Team strength
Borussia DortmundFC St. Pauli
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
69
AttackIn forecast
20
80
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundFC St. Pauli
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
56%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.18
ShotsContext
10.06
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.53
37%
On target shareContext
33%
8.65
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
72%
Box shareContext
53%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.12
Shots allowedContext
11.56
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.06
2.80
BlocksContext
3.92
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.53
76%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
495
PassesContext
442
421
Accurate passesContext
351
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.82
FoulsContext
10.00
10.59
Fouls sufferedContext
9.94
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.58
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
8.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.44
39%
On target shareContext
25%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
4.30
77%
Box shareContext
47%
18%
ConversionContext
7%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.63
10.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
72%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
478
PassesContext
407
405
Accurate passesContext
318
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.80
FoulsContext
8.30
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel284 km272 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 13 Jan | 2.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 355 km | 272 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
23E. Can
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
10J. Brandt
27K. Adeyemi
21Fábio Silva
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
25A. Dźwigała
21L. Ritzka
8E. Smith
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
16J. Fujita
19M. Kaars
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-6
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 34 of 45 · 2.27 per game | 11 of 45 · 0.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025FC St. Pauli3–3Borussia Dortmund
- 1 Mar 2025FC St. Pauli0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 18 Oct 2024Borussia Dortmund2–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 2.63 | 3.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 56% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 44% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Borussia Dortmund | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | 3.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.31 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.31 | 9.80 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 3.57 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.40 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.70 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 95 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 3.78
Red cards0.18league 0.20
Cards 5+42%league 39%
Fouls22.2league 21.1
Penalties0.31league 0.32
Home wins54%league 46%
Borussia Dortmund10 with this referee
Record6-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 May 25H · Holstein Kiel3–03
- L15 Feb 25A · VfL Bochum0–20
- D15 Dec 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–15
- W30 Mar 24A · Bayern München2–00
- W9 Feb 24H · SC Freiburg3–02
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Sep 25H · FC Augsburg2–11
- L11 Jan 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund17 games · scored 32 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
11
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
7
76-90
FC St. Pauli16 games · scored 14 · conceded 28
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
7
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 23 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
