Bundesliga Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 17 · 14:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 36 pts · 17 played
3–2Full time
FC St. Pauli 17th · 12 pts · 16 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Borussia Dortmund83.2%fair odds 1.20
Draw11.5%fair odds 8.73
FC St. Pauli5.3%fair odds 18.77
Expected goals3.03 – 0.70total 3.73
Likeliest score3–011.2%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Borussia Dortmund

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

FC St. Pauli

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Borussia Dortmund ↓ · FC St. Pauli →0123456+
02.71.40.60.10.00.00.0
17.05.41.80.40.10.00.0
211.17.72.70.60.10.00.0
311.27.82.70.60.10.00.0
48.45.92.10.50.10.00.0
55.13.61.20.30.10.00.0
6+4.33.01.00.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 3–011.2%8.96
  • 2–011.1%9.05
  • 4–08.4%11.84
  • 3–17.8%12.85
  • 2–17.7%12.97
  • 1–07.0%14.22
  • 4–15.9%16.98
  • 1–15.4%18.65
  • 5–05.1%19.56
  • 5–13.6%28.04

Winning margin

44.0% Borussia Dortmund by 3+ fair 2.27
21.2% Borussia Dortmund by 2 fair 4.72
18.0% Borussia Dortmund by 1 fair 5.56
11.5% Draw fair 8.73
3.9% FC St. Pauli by 1 fair 25.41
1.1% FC St. Pauli by 2 fair 88.86
0.3% FC St. Pauli by 3+ fair 375.14

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
8%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
32%5+

Borussia Dortmund goals

5%0
15%1
22%2
22%3
36%4+

FC St. Pauli goals

50%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Borussia Dortmund win 83.2% 81.4% +1.8 pp
Draw 11.5% 12.8% -1.4 pp
FC St. Pauli win 5.3% 5.8% -0.5 pp
Over 2.5 71.9% 67.3% +4.6 pp
Both teams score 48.1% 45.6% +2.4 pp
Expected goals Borussia Dortmund 3.03 2.81 +0.22
Expected goals FC St. Pauli 0.70 0.66 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Borussia Dortmund win83.2%1.20
  • Draw11.5%8.73
  • FC St. Pauli win5.3%18.77
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw94.7%1.06
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or FC St. Pauli88.5%1.13
  • Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw16.8%5.96
  • Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund94.0%1.06
  • Draw no bet FC St. Pauli6.0%16.62

Goals

  • Over 0.597.3%1.03
  • Over 1.588.9%1.13
  • Over 2.571.9%1.39
  • Over 3.551.1%1.96
  • Over 4.531.7%3.15
  • Under 1.511.1%8.99
  • Under 2.528.1%3.56
  • Under 3.548.9%2.04

Both teams to score

  • Yes48.1%2.08
  • No51.9%1.93
  • Yes and over 2.542.7%2.34
  • Borussia Dortmund win and yes36.1%2.77
  • Draw and yes8.8%11.40
  • FC St. Pauli win and yes3.2%31.59

Team goals

  • Borussia Dortmund over 0.595.2%1.05
  • Borussia Dortmund over 1.580.5%1.24
  • Borussia Dortmund over 2.558.3%1.72
  • FC St. Pauli over 0.550.2%1.99
  • FC St. Pauli over 1.515.5%6.45
  • FC St. Pauli over 2.53.4%29.55
  • Borussia Dortmund clean sheet49.8%2.01
  • FC St. Pauli clean sheet4.8%20.64
  • Borussia Dortmund win to nil47.1%2.12
  • FC St. Pauli win to nil2.2%46.24

Handicap

  • Borussia Dortmund −1.565.2%1.53
  • Borussia Dortmund −2.544.0%2.27
  • FC St. Pauli +1.534.8%2.88
  • FC St. Pauli +2.556.0%1.79
  • FC St. Pauli −1.51.4%71.84
  • Borussia Dortmund +1.598.6%1.01

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored151 Favourite won56.3% Avg chance given to result43.3% 1X2 Brier0.555 Over 2.5 called right63.6% BTTS called right57.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2238.2%45.5%
40–50%4745.1%40.4%
50–60%4054.8%57.5%
60–70%2465.2%79.2%
70–80%1374.3%76.9%
80%+586.7%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 131 of 151 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54460.5412
Avg chance given to result43.9%43.5%
Favourite won58.0%56.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 131 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 151 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.