Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 48 pts · 21 played
WWWWW
4–0Full time
FSV Mainz 05
14th · 21 pts · 21 played
WLWWW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FSV Mainz 05. Borussia Dortmund had 6.2 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 6.2 and had to travel 180 km.
Away travel180 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Borussia Dortmund57%
Draw22%
FSV Mainz 0521%
Borussia Dortmund65%
Draw21%
FSV Mainz 0514%
Borussia Dortmund57%
Draw22%
FSV Mainz 0520%
Borussia Dortmund49%
Draw24%
FSV Mainz 0527%
Borussia Dortmund55%
Draw23%
FSV Mainz 0522%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 48
Team strength
Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
69
AttackIn forecast
68
80
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05
2.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
0.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
100%
Scored inContext
62%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.90
ShotsContext
10.90
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
72%
Box shareContext
74%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.79
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.19
Shots allowedContext
14.81
3.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.05
2.63
BlocksContext
4.30
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
73%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
495
PassesContext
364
419
Accurate passesContext
271
85%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.86
FoulsContext
10.81
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.19
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
11.40
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
33%
On target shareContext
44%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
69%
Box shareContext
76%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.00
BlocksContext
4.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
68%
Save rateContext
77%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
481
PassesContext
326
402
Accurate passesContext
237
84%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.00
FoulsContext
9.00
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km497 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel180 km651 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 180 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 497 km | 651 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
3W. Anton
25N. Süle
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
10J. Brandt
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
33D. Batz(G)
31D. Kohr
16S. Bell
4S. Posch
30S. Widmer
7J. Lee
6K. Sano
10N. Amiri
21D. da Costa
20P. Tietz
26S. Katompa Mvumpa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-0
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 0.80
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | L 3–4 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 45 of 60 · 2.25 per game | 21 of 60 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 27 Sep 2025FSV Mainz 050–2Borussia Dortmund
- 30 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund3–1FSV Mainz 05
- 9 Nov 2024FSV Mainz 053–1Borussia Dortmund
- 11 May 2024FSV Mainz 053–0Borussia Dortmund
- 19 Dec 2023Borussia Dortmund1–1FSV Mainz 05
- 27 May 2023Borussia Dortmund2–2FSV Mainz 05
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.05 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.95 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 52% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 57% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 38% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Borussia Dortmund | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.35 | 5.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.35 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.47 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 4.23 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 7/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.34 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.90 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.74
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls23.6league 21.0
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins44%league 45%
Borussia Dortmund7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W29 Nov 25A · Bayer Leverkusen2–14
- D12 Apr 25A · Bayern München2–20
- L26 Oct 24A · FC Augsburg1–23
- W21 May 23A · FC Augsburg3–03
- W29 Jan 23A · Bayer Leverkusen2–04
FSV Mainz 051 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Jan 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund21 games · scored 43 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
14
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
7
5
61-75
11
7
76-90
FSV Mainz 0521 games · scored 25 · conceded 33
2
7
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
6
1
61-75
5
11
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
7
3
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
