Bundesliga Gameweek 22 Fri, Feb 13 · 19:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 48 pts · 21 played
4–0Full time
FSV Mainz 05 14th · 21 pts · 21 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Borussia Dortmund56.9%fair odds 1.76
Draw22.1%fair odds 4.53
FSV Mainz 0521.0%fair odds 4.77
Expected goals2.06 – 1.19total 3.24
Likeliest score1–110.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Borussia Dortmund

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

FSV Mainz 05

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Borussia Dortmund ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 →0123456+
04.44.12.71.10.30.10.0
17.510.05.72.20.70.20.0
28.39.85.82.30.70.20.0
35.76.74.01.60.50.10.0
42.93.52.00.80.20.10.0
51.21.40.80.30.10.00.0
6+0.60.70.40.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–110.0%9.97
  • 2–19.8%10.21
  • 2–08.3%12.11
  • 1–07.5%13.28
  • 3–16.7%14.89
  • 2–25.8%17.21
  • 3–05.7%17.66
  • 1–25.7%17.69
  • 0–04.4%22.66
  • 0–14.1%24.22

Winning margin

17.3% Borussia Dortmund by 3+ fair 5.78
17.4% Borussia Dortmund by 2 fair 5.75
22.2% Borussia Dortmund by 1 fair 4.50
22.1% Draw fair 4.53
12.6% FSV Mainz 05 by 1 fair 7.93
5.8% FSV Mainz 05 by 2 fair 17.28
2.6% FSV Mainz 05 by 3+ fair 38.62

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+

Borussia Dortmund goals

13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
15%4+

FSV Mainz 05 goals

31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Borussia Dortmund win 56.9% 55.0% +1.9 pp
Draw 22.1% 23.4% -1.3 pp
FSV Mainz 05 win 21.0% 21.6% -0.6 pp
Over 2.5 62.9% 58.2% +4.7 pp
Both teams score 61.1% 57.9% +3.2 pp
Expected goals Borussia Dortmund 2.06 1.90 +0.15
Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 1.19 1.12 +0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Borussia Dortmund win56.9%1.76
  • Draw22.1%4.53
  • FSV Mainz 05 win21.0%4.77
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw79.0%1.27
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or FSV Mainz 0577.9%1.28
  • Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw43.1%2.32
  • Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund73.1%1.37
  • Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0526.9%3.71

Goals

  • Over 0.595.6%1.05
  • Over 1.583.9%1.19
  • Over 2.562.9%1.59
  • Over 3.540.7%2.46
  • Over 4.522.7%4.41
  • Under 1.516.1%6.22
  • Under 2.537.1%2.69
  • Under 3.559.3%1.69

Both teams to score

  • Yes61.1%1.64
  • No38.9%2.57
  • Yes and over 2.551.0%1.96
  • Borussia Dortmund win and yes30.8%3.25
  • Draw and yes17.7%5.65
  • FSV Mainz 05 win and yes12.6%7.93

Team goals

  • Borussia Dortmund over 0.587.2%1.15
  • Borussia Dortmund over 1.560.9%1.64
  • Borussia Dortmund over 2.533.9%2.95
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 0.569.5%1.44
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 1.533.2%3.01
  • FSV Mainz 05 over 2.511.8%8.51
  • Borussia Dortmund clean sheet30.5%3.27
  • FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet12.8%7.82
  • Borussia Dortmund win to nil26.1%3.83
  • FSV Mainz 05 win to nil8.4%11.93

Handicap

  • Borussia Dortmund −1.534.7%2.88
  • Borussia Dortmund −2.517.3%5.78
  • FSV Mainz 05 +1.565.3%1.53
  • FSV Mainz 05 +2.582.7%1.21
  • FSV Mainz 05 −1.58.4%11.94
  • Borussia Dortmund +1.591.6%1.09

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored188 Favourite won56.4% Avg chance given to result43.1% 1X2 Brier0.562 Over 2.5 called right62.2% BTTS called right57.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2638.2%42.3%
40–50%5745.2%42.1%
50–60%5355.1%60.4%
60–70%2964.7%75.9%
70–80%1574.5%73.3%
80%+885.8%75.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 168 of 188 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55420.5500
Avg chance given to result43.5%43.1%
Favourite won57.7%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 168 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 188 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.