Bundesliga Gameweek 15 Sat, Jan 9 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel180 kmRest days21 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
FSV Mainz 05—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 25 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and FSV Mainz 05. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 55
69 AttackIn forecast 68
80 DefenceIn forecast 56
61 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
83% Scored inContext 83%
67% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.17 ShotsContext 17.83
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
34% On target shareContext 34%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.33
73% Box shareContext 76%
12% ConversionContext 13%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.40
11.67 Shots allowedContext 12.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
2.80 BlocksContext 4.17
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
78% Save rateContext 57%
55% PossessionIn forecast 51%
530 PassesContext 446
450 Accurate passesContext 357
85% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.17 FoulsContext 13.83
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 2.21
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
80% Scored inContext 90%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
14.70 ShotsContext 17.10
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
39% On target shareContext 36%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 12.80
72% Box shareContext 75%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.22
11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.50
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.78 BlocksContext 3.30
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
77% Save rateContext 58%
54% PossessionIn forecast 48%
530 PassesContext 420
454 Accurate passesContext 337
86% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.94
10.90 FoulsContext 12.80
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
FSV Mainz 05
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel180 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Dec21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km180 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one3.23.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci
9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
FSV Mainz 05 · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
3.33
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBorussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07 W 3–0 H D 0–0 H
Hamburger SV W 2–0 H W 5–0 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.20 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 10%
  • 13 Feb 2026Borussia Dortmund4–0FSV Mainz 05
  • 27 Sep 2025FSV Mainz 050–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 30 Mar 2025Borussia Dortmund3–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 9 Nov 2024FSV Mainz 053–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 11 May 2024FSV Mainz 053–0Borussia Dortmund
  • 19 Dec 2023Borussia Dortmund1–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 1.832.33
Conceded per game 0.671.67
Match goals 2.504.00
Over 1.5 67%67%
Over 2.5 50%67%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 33%50%
Clean sheets 67%50%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05Forecast
Scored per game 1.902.20
Conceded per game 0.901.80
Match goals 2.804.00
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 50%70%
Over 3.5 40%60%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won4.834.83
Corners conceded4.674.00
Match total9.508.8310.72
Over 8.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 10.533% 2/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards2.672.33
Opponent cards2.002.00
Match total4.674.333.51
Over 3.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 4.550% 3/617% 1/6
Borussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05League
Corners
Corners won5.804.80
Corners conceded4.504.90
Match total10.309.7010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.201.90
Opponent cards1.501.90
Match total3.703.803.51
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
FSV Mainz 056 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4 0-15
3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
4 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 61-75
6 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Union Berlin Jan 914:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Bayern München Jan 914:30 Borussia Dortmund FSV Mainz 05 Jan 914:30 1899 Hoffenheim SV Elversberg Jan 914:30 Eintracht Frankfurt FC Schalke 04 Jan 914:30 VfB Stuttgart FC Augsburg Jan 914:30 Hamburger SV Bayer Leverkusen Jan 914:30 SC Paderborn 07 RB Leipzig Jan 914:30 1.FC Köln SC Freiburg Jan 914:30