Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 19 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel142 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
FSV Mainz 05—%
Draw—%
1.FC Köln—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Mainz)

Forecast from 4 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.FC Köln. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FSV Mainz 051.FC Köln
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
55 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
68 AttackIn forecast 36
56 DefenceIn forecast 36
70 Form indexContext 26
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—
Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FSV Mainz 051.FC Köln
2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
83% Scored inContext 83%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.83 ShotsContext 16.33
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
34% On target shareContext 33%
13.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
76% Box shareContext 71%
13% ConversionContext 8%
2.40 OffsidesContext 1.00
12.50 Shots allowedContext 15.67
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33
4.17 BlocksContext 3.83
2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
57% Save rateContext 71%
51% PossessionIn forecast 48%
446 PassesContext 417
357 Accurate passesContext 344
80% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.76
13.83 FoulsContext 11.17
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33
2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
2.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
90% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.10 ShotsContext 15.30
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
36% On target shareContext 35%
12.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
75% Box shareContext 73%
13% ConversionContext 9%
2.22 OffsidesContext 1.17
12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.30 BlocksContext 3.80
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
58% Save rateContext 60%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
420 PassesContext 414
337 Accurate passesContext 343
80% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.69
12.80 FoulsContext 9.80
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km651 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts
1.FC Köln
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel142 km805 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FSV Mainz 05 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km142 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways651 km805 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2121

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed
3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1A. Schwolow(G)
48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci
9P. Tietz 23S. Becker
1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FSV Mainz 05 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1.FC Köln Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FSV Mainz 05 · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.33
1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentFSV Mainz 051.FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 4–3 A W 2–1 H
Eintracht Frankfurt L 1–3 H L 0–1 A
Hamburger SV W 5–0 A L 1–2 A
Points6 of 9 · 2.00 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 FSV Mainz 05 wins4 draws3 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.13 Over 2.538% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 25%
  • 17 Jan 20261.FC Köln2–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 24 Aug 2025FSV Mainz 050–11.FC Köln
  • 28 Apr 2024FSV Mainz 051–11.FC Köln
  • 10 Dec 20231.FC Köln0–0FSV Mainz 05
  • 15 Apr 20231.FC Köln1–1FSV Mainz 05
  • 21 Oct 2022FSV Mainz 055–01.FC Köln

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 2.331.33
Conceded per game 1.671.83
Match goals 4.003.17
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 67%67%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 50%83%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 2.201.30
Conceded per game 1.802.30
Match goals 4.003.60
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 60%90%
Clean sheets 40%0%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won4.836.00
Corners conceded4.006.33
Match total8.8312.3310.72
Over 8.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 9.533% 2/683% 5/6
Over 10.517% 1/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.331.83
Opponent cards2.001.67
Match total4.333.503.51
Over 3.550% 3/667% 4/6
Over 4.517% 1/60% 0/6
FSV Mainz 051.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won4.805.78
Corners conceded4.905.44
Match total9.7011.2210.72
Over 8.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 9.540% 4/1078% 7/9
Over 10.530% 3/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.901.80
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total3.803.503.51
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

FSV Mainz 056 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4 0-15
3 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
6 1 76-90
1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
3 4 0-15
4 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 4 46-60
2 61-75
6 6 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayern München Werder Bremen Dec 1914:30 SC Freiburg VfB Stuttgart Dec 1914:30 FSV Mainz 05 1.FC Köln Dec 1914:30 Bayer Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt Dec 1914:30 FC Augsburg SC Paderborn 07 Dec 1914:30 RB Leipzig Borussia Dortmund Dec 1914:30 FC Schalke 04 Borussia Mönchengladbach Dec 1914:30 Union Berlin 1899 Hoffenheim Dec 1914:30 SV Elversberg Hamburger SV Dec 1914:30