Bundesliga Gameweek 15 Sat, Jan 9 · 14:30 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel135 kmRest days21 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
VfB Stuttgart—%
Draw—%
FC Augsburg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Stuttgart)

Forecast from 25 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

VfB StuttgartFC Augsburg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
70 AttackIn forecast 72
58 DefenceIn forecast 23
46 Form indexContext 46
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Augsburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB StuttgartFC Augsburg
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 2.15
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.95
-0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.52
67% Scored inContext 100%
17% Clean sheetsContext 17%
17.00 ShotsContext 15.67
5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
34% On target shareContext 45%
12.17 Shots in the boxContext 11.67
72% Box shareContext 72%
8% ConversionContext 17%
1.60 OffsidesContext 1.75
18.17 Shots allowedContext 21.83
5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
5.00 BlocksContext 6.17
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
63% Save rateContext 70%
55% PossessionIn forecast 42%
506 PassesContext 372
422 Accurate passesContext 288
83% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.02 Team ratingContext 7.01
9.83 FoulsContext 9.83
11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.91 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25
-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
80% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.80 ShotsContext 15.10
6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
37% On target shareContext 42%
11.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
70% Box shareContext 72%
11% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.88
15.50 Shots allowedContext 19.20
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80
5.22 BlocksContext 5.50
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
65% Save rateContext 71%
55% PossessionIn forecast 41%
502 PassesContext 356
422 Accurate passesContext 274
84% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.95
11.10 FoulsContext 9.20
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
  • W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts
FC Augsburg
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel135 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
VfB Stuttgart FC Augsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Dec21Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km135 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one3.23.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah
16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer
9Rodrigo Ribeiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
VfB Stuttgart Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Augsburg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
FC Augsburg · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
3.00
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentVfB StuttgartFC Augsburg
Bayern München L 1–5 A D 2–2 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 VfB Stuttgart wins1 draws1 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.20 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%
  • 22 Mar 2026FC Augsburg2–5VfB Stuttgart
  • 9 Nov 2025VfB Stuttgart3–2FC Augsburg
  • 11 May 2025VfB Stuttgart4–0FC Augsburg
  • 12 Jan 2025FC Augsburg0–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 10 May 2024FC Augsburg0–1VfB Stuttgart
  • 20 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart3–0FC Augsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

VfB StuttgartFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 1.332.67
Conceded per game 1.672.00
Match goals 3.004.67
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 33%83%
Both teams scored 50%83%
Clean sheets 17%17%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games66
VfB StuttgartFC AugsburgForecast
Scored per game 1.902.30
Conceded per game 1.401.90
Match goals 3.304.20
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 70%90%
Over 3.5 50%80%
Both teams scored 60%80%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

VfB StuttgartFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won6.676.00
Corners conceded6.006.83
Match total12.6712.8310.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 10.583% 5/683% 5/6
Cards
Cards1.001.83
Opponent cards2.331.50
Match total3.333.333.51
Over 3.550% 3/633% 2/6
Over 4.517% 1/617% 1/6
VfB StuttgartFC AugsburgLeague
Corners
Corners won6.305.80
Corners conceded5.406.10
Match total11.7011.9010.72
Over 8.590% 9/1080% 8/10
Over 9.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 10.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.401.60
Opponent cards2.101.70
Match total3.503.303.51
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90
FC Augsburg6 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
5 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
5 5 76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 5 76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
4 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
5 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Union Berlin Jan 914:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach Bayern München Jan 914:30 Borussia Dortmund FSV Mainz 05 Jan 914:30 1899 Hoffenheim SV Elversberg Jan 914:30 Eintracht Frankfurt FC Schalke 04 Jan 914:30 VfB Stuttgart FC Augsburg Jan 914:30 Hamburger SV Bayer Leverkusen Jan 914:30 SC Paderborn 07 RB Leipzig Jan 914:30 1.FC Köln SC Freiburg Jan 914:30