Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 58 pts · 26 played
WDLWW
3–2Full time
Hamburger SV
11th · 30 pts · 26 played
DLLWD
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hamburger SV. Borussia Dortmund had 7.1 days of rest, Hamburger SV 7 and had to travel 284 km.
Away travel284 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw17%
Hamburger SV11%
Borussia Dortmund71%
Draw18%
Hamburger SV10%
Borussia Dortmund71%
Draw18%
Hamburger SV11%
Borussia Dortmund64%
Draw20%
Hamburger SV15%
Borussia Dortmund70%
Draw19%
Hamburger SV12%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 66
Team strength
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
69
AttackIn forecast
37
80
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundHamburger SV
2.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
65%
46%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.85
ShotsContext
11.77
4.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.54
36%
On target shareContext
39%
9.35
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
74%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.38
Shots allowedContext
13.31
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
2.87
BlocksContext
3.52
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
73%
Save rateContext
65%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
488
PassesContext
397
412
Accurate passesContext
324
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.08
FoulsContext
11.69
10.23
Fouls sufferedContext
12.69
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
41%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
74%
Box shareContext
58%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.20
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
67%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
469
PassesContext
401
390
Accurate passesContext
323
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.20
FoulsContext
11.10
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km148 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel284 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 148 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
49Luca Reggiani
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
27K. Adeyemi
14M. Beier
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
17W. Omari
21N. Remberg
28M. Muheim
6A. Sambi Lokonga
20Fábio Vieira
2W. Mikelbrencis
27P. Otele
11R. Königsdörffer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.46points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-1
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 0.85
Hamburger SV · Away
0.83points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-6
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 2–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 57 of 75 · 2.28 per game | 29 of 75 · 1.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Hamburger SV1–1Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.12 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.12 | 2.54 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 46% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 35% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.20 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.48 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.32 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 11/25 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 3.53 | 4.54 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 14/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 9/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.22 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 3.73
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 20.5
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins53%league 45%
Borussia Dortmund9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds2
- W1 Feb 26H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–22
- D23 Aug 25A · FC St. Pauli3–34
- L15 Mar 25A · RB Leipzig0–23
- W22 Dec 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–13
- W18 Oct 24H · FC St. Pauli2–12
Hamburger SVNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund26 games · scored 55 · conceded 26
7
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
15
2
31-45
7
5
46-60
7
6
61-75
14
9
76-90
Hamburger SV26 games · scored 29 · conceded 37
2
4
0-15
3
7
16-30
7
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
6
7
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
