Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig – 4 Oct 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 6 Sat, Oct 4 · 14:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 13 pts · 5 played DWWWW

1–1Full time

RB Leipzig 3rd · 12 pts · 5 played LWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 66). Borussia Dortmund had 7 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7 and had to travel 341 km.

Away travel341 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Borussia Dortmund59%

Draw22%

RB Leipzig19%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.10

Borussia Dortmund57%

Draw24%

RB Leipzig19%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

Borussia Dortmund59%

Draw22%

RB Leipzig19%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.07

Borussia Dortmund51%

Draw24%

RB Leipzig25%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.23

Borussia Dortmund57%

Draw24%

RB Leipzig20%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.01

Over 2.5 61% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Dortmund)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 80

Team strength

Borussia Dortmund

RB Leipzig

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

69 AttackIn forecast 76

80 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Dortmund

RB Leipzig

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 2.04

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.64

100% Scored inContext 80%

80% Clean sheetsContext 60%

11.40 ShotsContext 17.00

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

49% On target shareContext 27%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.40

79% Box shareContext 67%

19% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

8.60 Shots allowedContext 14.20

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

1.80 BlocksContext 5.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

77% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 49%

572 PassesContext 423

501 Accurate passesContext 350

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.80 FoulsContext 10.00

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.53

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.64

+1.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

100% Scored inContext 70%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.80 ShotsContext 13.20

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

48% On target shareContext 34%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

70% Box shareContext 62%

25% ConversionContext 10%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.22

10.10 Shots allowedContext 14.70

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.67 BlocksContext 5.20

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

72% Save rateContext 58%

56% PossessionIn forecast 50%

540 PassesContext 446

470 Accurate passesContext 371

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.14 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.30 FoulsContext 9.70

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km360 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

RB Leipzig

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel341 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Dortmund	RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	341 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	360 km	325 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Kobel(G)

5A. Bensebaini 4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton

24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 20M. Sabitzer 2Yan Couto

14M. Beier 27K. Adeyemi

9S. Guirassy

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

RB Leipzig Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1P. Gulácsi(G)

22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 17R. Baku

14C. Baumgartner 13N. Seiwald 20F. Ouédraogo

7A. Nusa 40Rômulo 9S. Bakayoko

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Dortmund Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

RB Leipzig Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Dortmund-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
RB Leipzig+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

RB Leipzig · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Borussia Dortmund	RB Leipzig
FSV Mainz 05	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 A
VfL Wolfsburg	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
1. FC Heidenheim	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Points	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Borussia Dortmund wins0 draws6 RB Leipzig wins

Goals per game1.13 – 2.50 Over 2.588% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

15 Mar 2025RB Leipzig2–0Borussia Dortmund
2 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund2–1RB Leipzig
27 Apr 2024RB Leipzig4–1Borussia Dortmund
9 Dec 2023Borussia Dortmund2–3RB Leipzig
3 Mar 2023Borussia Dortmund2–1RB Leipzig
10 Sep 2022RB Leipzig3–0Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Dortmund	RB Leipzig	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.40
Conceded per game	0.60	1.40
Match goals	2.80	2.80	3.13
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	20%	20%	58%
Clean sheets	80%	60%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	5	5

	Borussia Dortmund	RB Leipzig	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.40
Conceded per game	0.60	1.40
Match goals	2.80	2.80	3.13
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	20%	20%	58%
Clean sheets	80%	60%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Dortmund	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.80
Corners conceded	4.80	4.40
Match total	8.80	11.20	10.43
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	0% 0/5	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.20
Opponent cards	1.60	2.60
Match total	3.40	3.80	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5

	Borussia Dortmund	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	5.70
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	8.13	11.70	10.43
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.60
Opponent cards	1.30	1.70
Match total	2.90	3.30	4.55
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 80 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.34league 4.28

Red cards0.18league 0.30

Cards 5+49%league 46%

Fouls23.5league 22.9

Penalties0.16league 0.50

Home wins35%league 37%

Borussia Dortmund4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

D28 Apr 23A · VfL Bochum1–12
W25 Jan 23A · FSV Mainz 052–10
W29 Oct 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt2–15
W16 Mar 22A · FSV Mainz 051–04

RB Leipzig8 with this referee

Record3-2-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

D14 Feb 25A · FC Augsburg0–01
L15 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–27
W6 Oct 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–02
D11 May 24H · Werder Bremen1–11
L24 Feb 24A · Bayern München1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.