Bundesliga Gameweek 6 Sat, Oct 4 · 14:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 13 pts · 5 played
1–1Full time
RB Leipzig 3rd · 12 pts · 5 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Borussia Dortmund58.6%fair odds 1.71
Draw22.1%fair odds 4.52
RB Leipzig19.3%fair odds 5.18
Expected goals2.04 – 1.10total 3.13
Likeliest score1–110.2%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Borussia Dortmund

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

RB Leipzig

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Borussia Dortmund ↓ · RB Leipzig →0123456+
04.94.32.61.00.30.10.0
18.410.25.31.90.50.10.0
29.09.95.42.00.50.10.0
36.16.73.71.30.40.10.0
43.13.41.90.70.20.00.0
51.31.40.80.30.10.00.0
6+0.60.70.40.10.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns RB Leipzig goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–110.2%9.76
  • 2–19.9%10.09
  • 2–09.0%11.06
  • 1–08.4%11.96
  • 3–16.7%14.86
  • 3–06.1%16.28
  • 2–25.4%18.41
  • 1–25.3%18.75
  • 0–04.9%20.52
  • 0–14.3%23.48

Winning margin

17.9% Borussia Dortmund by 3+ fair 5.59
18.0% Borussia Dortmund by 2 fair 5.57
22.7% Borussia Dortmund by 1 fair 4.40
22.1% Draw fair 4.52
12.0% RB Leipzig by 1 fair 8.34
5.2% RB Leipzig by 2 fair 19.24
2.1% RB Leipzig by 3+ fair 46.99

Goal distribution

Total goals

5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+

Borussia Dortmund goals

13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+

RB Leipzig goals

33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Borussia Dortmund win 58.6% 56.5% +2.1 pp
Draw 22.1% 23.7% -1.6 pp
RB Leipzig win 19.3% 19.7% -0.4 pp
Over 2.5 60.6% 54.3% +6.3 pp
Both teams score 58.4% 54.0% +4.4 pp
Expected goals Borussia Dortmund 2.04 1.85 +0.19
Expected goals RB Leipzig 1.10 1.01 +0.09

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Borussia Dortmund win58.6%1.71
  • Draw22.1%4.52
  • RB Leipzig win19.3%5.18
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw80.7%1.24
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or RB Leipzig77.9%1.28
  • Double chance RB Leipzig or draw41.4%2.41
  • Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund75.2%1.33
  • Draw no bet RB Leipzig24.8%4.03

Goals

  • Over 0.595.1%1.05
  • Over 1.582.5%1.21
  • Over 2.560.6%1.65
  • Over 3.538.3%2.61
  • Over 4.520.8%4.82
  • Under 1.517.5%5.72
  • Under 2.539.4%2.54
  • Under 3.561.7%1.62

Both teams to score

  • Yes58.4%1.71
  • No41.6%2.40
  • Yes and over 2.548.2%2.08
  • Borussia Dortmund win and yes30.0%3.33
  • Draw and yes17.2%5.80
  • RB Leipzig win and yes11.2%8.97

Team goals

  • Borussia Dortmund over 0.587.0%1.15
  • Borussia Dortmund over 1.560.4%1.66
  • Borussia Dortmund over 2.533.3%3.00
  • RB Leipzig over 0.566.6%1.50
  • RB Leipzig over 1.530.0%3.34
  • RB Leipzig over 2.59.9%10.12
  • Borussia Dortmund clean sheet33.4%2.99
  • RB Leipzig clean sheet13.0%7.67
  • Borussia Dortmund win to nil28.5%3.50
  • RB Leipzig win to nil8.2%12.25

Handicap

  • Borussia Dortmund −1.535.9%2.79
  • Borussia Dortmund −2.517.9%5.59
  • RB Leipzig +1.564.1%1.56
  • RB Leipzig +2.582.1%1.22
  • RB Leipzig −1.57.3%13.65
  • Borussia Dortmund +1.592.7%1.08

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored46 Favourite won50.0% Avg chance given to result42.1% 1X2 Brier0.581 Over 2.5 called right65.2% BTTS called right60.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%838.0%37.5%
40–50%1345.5%38.5%
50–60%1053.9%40.0%
60–70%1066.1%80.0%
70–80%473.8%50.0%
80%+187.0%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 28 of 46 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54260.5423
Avg chance given to result44.0%43.3%
Favourite won53.6%60.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 28 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 46 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.