Bundesliga Gameweek 31 Sat, Apr 24 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel341 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
RB Leipzig—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 9 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Borussia DortmundRB Leipzig
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
69 AttackIn forecast 76
80 DefenceIn forecast 53
61 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundRB Leipzig
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 2.13
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.54
83% Scored inContext 83%
67% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.17 ShotsContext 17.67
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
34% On target shareContext 37%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.67
73% Box shareContext 69%
12% ConversionContext 15%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.25
11.67 Shots allowedContext 17.00
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83
2.80 BlocksContext 4.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
78% Save rateContext 77%
55% PossessionIn forecast 53%
530 PassesContext 508
450 Accurate passesContext 441
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.11
11.17 FoulsContext 9.83
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.92
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
80% Scored inContext 90%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
14.70 ShotsContext 16.40
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
39% On target shareContext 36%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
72% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 13%
1.63 OffsidesContext 1.29
11.20 Shots allowedContext 14.20
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
2.78 BlocksContext 3.00
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
77% Save rateContext 69%
54% PossessionIn forecast 54%
530 PassesContext 508
454 Accurate passesContext 443
86% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.97
10.90 FoulsContext 9.30
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km854 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts
RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel341 km651 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Apr7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km341 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways854 km651 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
3.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBorussia DortmundRB Leipzig
Werder Bremen D 2–2 H L 1–3 A
Hamburger SV W 2–0 H W 5–0 H
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws6 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.30 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%
  • 21 Feb 2026RB Leipzig2–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 4 Oct 2025Borussia Dortmund1–1RB Leipzig
  • 15 Mar 2025RB Leipzig2–0Borussia Dortmund
  • 2 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund2–1RB Leipzig
  • 27 Apr 2024RB Leipzig4–1Borussia Dortmund
  • 9 Dec 2023Borussia Dortmund2–3RB Leipzig

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.832.67
Conceded per game 0.671.83
Match goals 2.504.50
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%83%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 33%33%
Clean sheets 67%50%
Failed to score 17%17%
Games66
Borussia DortmundRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.902.10
Conceded per game 0.902.00
Match goals 2.804.10
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 40%60%
Both teams scored 40%50%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won4.835.50
Corners conceded4.676.83
Match total9.5012.3310.72
Over 8.567% 4/6100% 6/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.533% 2/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.671.00
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total4.672.503.51
Over 3.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 4.550% 3/617% 1/6
Borussia DortmundRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won5.804.80
Corners conceded4.505.70
Match total10.3010.5010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards2.201.30
Opponent cards1.501.30
Match total3.702.603.51
Over 3.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2 1 0-15
16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Bayern München Apr 2414:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach FC Schalke 04 Apr 2414:30 Borussia Dortmund RB Leipzig Apr 2414:30 1899 Hoffenheim Union Berlin Apr 2414:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Bayer Leverkusen Apr 2414:30 VfB Stuttgart SC Freiburg Apr 2414:30 Hamburger SV SV Elversberg Apr 2414:30 SC Paderborn 07 FC Augsburg Apr 2414:30 1.FC Köln FSV Mainz 05 Apr 2414:30