Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin – 31 Aug 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 31 · 16:30 SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

3–0Full time

Union Berlin 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 44). Borussia Dortmund usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Borussia Dortmund had 8 days of rest, Union Berlin 8.1 and had to travel 422 km.

Away travel422 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Borussia Dortmund69%

Draw19%

Union Berlin12%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.86

Borussia Dortmund67%

Draw20%

Union Berlin13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.84

Borussia Dortmund69%

Draw19%

Union Berlin12%

Expected goals 2.28 – 0.86

Borussia Dortmund62%

Draw22%

Union Berlin17%

Expected goals 2.03 – 0.96

Borussia Dortmund67%

Draw20%

Union Berlin13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.84

Over 2.5 61% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Dortmund)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 73

Team strength

Borussia Dortmund

Union Berlin

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

69 AttackIn forecast 42

80 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Union Berlin

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Dortmund

Union Berlin

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.18 xGVia Att/Def 0.87

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.72 Goals minus xGContext +0.63

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.70 ShotsContext 9.30

6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

45% On target shareContext 37%

10.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

78% Box shareContext 70%

21% ConversionContext 16%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.70 Shots allowedContext 13.80

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.00 BlocksContext 3.40

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

65% Save rateContext 65%

51% PossessionIn forecast 33%

478 PassesContext 282

405 Accurate passesContext 202

85% Pass accuracyContext 72%

7.12 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.30 FoulsContext 11.40

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km567 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Union Berlin

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel422 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug	8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	422 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	567 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	12.9	12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Kobel(G)

5A. Bensebaini 3W. Anton 28A. Anselmino

24D. Svensson 7J. Bellingham 20M. Sabitzer 2Yan Couto

14M. Beier 10J. Brandt

9S. Guirassy

Union Berlin Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1F. Rønnow(G)

24R. Skov 15T. Rothe 14L. Querfeld 5D. Doekhi 28C. Trimmel

19J. Haberer 8R. Khedira 33A. Král

23A. Ilić 10Ilyas Ansah

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Dortmund Absences are shown before kick-off

Union Berlin Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Union Berlin+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home No home games yet this season.

Union Berlin · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 Borussia Dortmund wins0 draws2 Union Berlin wins

Goals per game2.75 – 1.13 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%

22 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund6–0Union Berlin
5 Oct 2024Union Berlin2–1Borussia Dortmund
2 Mar 2024Union Berlin0–2Borussia Dortmund
7 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund4–2Union Berlin
8 Apr 2023Borussia Dortmund2–1Union Berlin
16 Oct 2022Union Berlin2–0Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	6.00	3.00	3.13
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	6.00	3.00	3.13
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	11.00
Match total	7.00	16.00	10.33
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	4.00
Opponent cards	2.00	4.00
Match total	6.00	8.00	5.67
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Borussia Dortmund	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	3.56
Corners conceded	3.33	6.56
Match total	8.44	10.12	10.33
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.50
Opponent cards	1.40	2.10
Match total	2.80	3.60	5.67
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.26league 5.25

Red cards0.21league 0.31

Cards 5+49%league 63%

Fouls22.7league 23.6

Penalties0.32league 0.44

Home wins56%league 31%

Borussia Dortmund8 with this referee

Record7-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against4 · 1

W30 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 053–12
L17 Jan 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–22
W20 Jan 24A · 1.FC Köln4–02
W13 May 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–20
W8 Apr 23H · Union Berlin2–15

Union Berlin9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

D1 Feb 25H · RB Leipzig0–03
L28 Sep 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–11
W16 Mar 24H · Werder Bremen2–13
L3 Sep 23H · RB Leipzig0–34
L8 Apr 23A · Borussia Dortmund1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.