Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund69.0%fair odds 1.45
Draw18.9%fair odds 5.29
Union Berlin12.1%fair odds 8.25
Expected goals2.28 – 0.86total 3.13
Likeliest score2–011.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · Union Berlin → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns Union Berlin goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%8.84
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 1–09.5%10.54
- 1–19.0%11.17
- 3–08.6%11.66
- 3–17.3%13.63
- 4–04.9%20.49
- 0–04.8%20.75
- 4–14.2%23.96
- 2–24.1%24.18
Winning margin
25.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 3.94
20.7%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 4.83
22.9%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.37
18.9%
Draw
fair 5.29
8.3%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 12.03
2.9%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 34.23
0.9%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 111.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
21%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
Union Berlin goals
43%0
36%1
16%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 69.0% | 66.9% | +2.1 pp |
| Draw | 18.9% | 20.2% | -1.3 pp |
| Union Berlin win | 12.1% | 13.0% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 57.1% | +3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.0% | 50.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.28 | 2.14 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 0.86 | 0.84 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win69.0%1.45
- Draw18.9%5.29
- Union Berlin win12.1%8.25
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw87.9%1.14
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or Union Berlin81.1%1.23
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw31.0%3.22
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund85.0%1.18
- Draw no bet Union Berlin15.0%6.69
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.4%1.21
- Over 2.560.5%1.65
- Over 3.538.2%2.62
- Over 4.520.7%4.83
- Under 1.517.6%5.68
- Under 2.539.5%2.53
- Under 3.561.8%1.62
Both teams to score
- Yes52.0%1.92
- No48.0%2.08
- Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes31.3%3.20
- Draw and yes14.1%7.09
- Union Berlin win and yes6.7%14.99
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.589.7%1.11
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.566.3%1.51
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.539.7%2.52
- Union Berlin over 0.557.5%1.74
- Union Berlin over 1.521.1%4.74
- Union Berlin over 2.55.6%17.96
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet42.5%2.35
- Union Berlin clean sheet10.3%9.73
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil37.7%2.65
- Union Berlin win to nil5.5%18.33
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.546.1%2.17
- Borussia Dortmund −2.525.4%3.94
- Union Berlin +1.553.9%1.86
- Union Berlin +2.574.6%1.34
- Union Berlin −1.53.8%26.21
- Borussia Dortmund +1.596.2%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored16
Favourite won43.8%
Avg chance given to result37.5%
1X2 Brier0.672
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right62.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.6% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.6% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.5% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.5% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 16 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 16 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.