Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 33 pts · 16 played
WWDWD
3–0Full time
Werder Bremen
12th · 17 pts · 15 played
LDLLD
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund had 4 days of rest, Werder Bremen 24.2 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days4 · 24.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
Borussia Dortmund69%
Draw18%
Werder Bremen12%
Borussia Dortmund68%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen12%
Borussia Dortmund70%
Draw18%
Werder Bremen12%
Borussia Dortmund62%
Draw21%
Werder Bremen17%
Borussia Dortmund67%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen13%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 112
Team strength
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
69
AttackIn forecast
56
80
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
1.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.87
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
67%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.00
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.43
72%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.91
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.44
Shots allowedContext
15.47
3.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
2.80
BlocksContext
4.07
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
75%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
499
PassesContext
445
424
Accurate passesContext
364
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.69
FoulsContext
10.33
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.47
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
38%
On target shareContext
30%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
77%
Box shareContext
56%
17%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.70
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
2.90
BlocksContext
4.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.70
72%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
480
PassesContext
440
407
Accurate passesContext
359
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.00
FoulsContext
10.90
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest24.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 Jan | 24.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 355 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
25N. Süle
26J. Ryerson
8F. Nmecha
20M. Sabitzer
2Yan Couto
17C. Chukwuemeka
14M. Beier
21Fábio Silva
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
31Karim Coulibaly
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
23I. Schmidt
6J. Stage
14S. Lynen
3Y. Sugawara
17M. Grüll
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Werder Bremen+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-0
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 0.57
Werder Bremen · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 3–3 A | L 1–4 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 2–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 3–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 3–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 45 · 2.00 per game | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 25 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2–2Werder Bremen
- 31 Aug 2024Werder Bremen0–0Borussia Dortmund
- 9 Mar 2024Werder Bremen1–2Borussia Dortmund
- 20 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund1–0Werder Bremen
- 11 Feb 2023Werder Bremen0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 20 Aug 2022Borussia Dortmund2–3Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.81 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.94 | 1.87 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.07 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 13.11 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 10/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 7.17 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 13.84 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 112 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.49league 3.85
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+50%league 41%
Fouls23.6league 21.1
Penalties0.26league 0.33
Home wins41%league 45%
Borussia Dortmund12 with this referee
Record6-3-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W21 Sep 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- W20 Apr 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–21
- L8 Feb 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–25
- W18 May 24H · SV Darmstadt 984–00
- D21 Apr 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–14
Werder Bremen3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W5 Apr 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–03
- W16 Feb 24A · 1.FC Köln1–04
- W28 Jan 23H · VfL Wolfsburg2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund16 games · scored 29 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
11
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
Werder Bremen15 games · scored 18 · conceded 28
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
8
61-75
7
7
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
