Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund
1st · 12 pts · 4 played
WWWW
2–2Full time
Werder Bremen
8th · 7 pts · 4 played
LWDW
Borussia Dortmund71.2%fair odds 1.40
Draw17.4%fair odds 5.74
Werder Bremen11.4%fair odds 8.77
Expected goals2.47 – 0.90total 3.37
Likeliest score2–010.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · Werder Bremen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.5%9.55
- 2–19.5%10.58
- 3–08.6%11.63
- 1–08.1%12.37
- 1–18.1%12.38
- 3–17.8%12.87
- 4–05.3%18.87
- 4–14.8%20.89
- 2–24.3%23.42
- 0–03.9%25.97
Winning margin
28.7%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 3.49
20.7%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 4.82
21.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.59
17.4%
Draw
fair 5.74
7.7%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 12.95
2.8%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 35.89
0.9%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 111.87
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
Werder Bremen goals
41%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71.2% | 71.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 17.4% | 17.5% | -0.0 pp |
| Werder Bremen win | 11.4% | 11.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 65.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.8% | 54.9% | -0.0 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.47 | 2.46 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 0.90 | 0.90 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win71.2%1.40
- Draw17.4%5.74
- Werder Bremen win11.4%8.77
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw88.6%1.13
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or Werder Bremen82.6%1.21
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw28.8%3.47
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund86.2%1.16
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen13.8%7.24
Goals
- Over 0.596.1%1.04
- Over 1.585.4%1.17
- Over 2.565.4%1.53
- Over 3.543.5%2.30
- Over 4.525.0%4.00
- Under 1.514.6%6.83
- Under 2.534.6%2.89
- Under 3.556.5%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes54.8%1.82
- No45.2%2.21
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes34.5%2.90
- Draw and yes13.6%7.37
- Werder Bremen win and yes6.8%14.81
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.591.5%1.09
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.570.5%1.42
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.544.7%2.24
- Werder Bremen over 0.559.5%1.68
- Werder Bremen over 1.522.9%4.37
- Werder Bremen over 2.56.3%15.77
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet40.5%2.47
- Werder Bremen clean sheet8.5%11.76
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil36.7%2.73
- Werder Bremen win to nil4.6%21.51
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.549.4%2.02
- Borussia Dortmund −2.528.7%3.49
- Werder Bremen +1.550.6%1.98
- Werder Bremen +2.571.3%1.40
- Werder Bremen −1.53.7%27.17
- Borussia Dortmund +1.596.3%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won52.8%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right77.8%
BTTS called right61.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 43.3% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.8% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5571 | 0.5738 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 52.8% | 52.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.