Borussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Dortmund
1st · 12 pts · 4 played
WWWW
2–2Full time
Werder Bremen
8th · 7 pts · 4 played
LWDW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Werder Bremen. Borussia Dortmund were without N. Schlotterbeck and J. Ryerson. Werder Bremen were without S. Lynen and J. Stage. Borussia Dortmund had 20.1 days of rest, Werder Bremen 20.2 and had to travel 196 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel196 kmRest days20.1 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw17%
Werder Bremen12%
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw17%
Werder Bremen11%
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw17%
Werder Bremen12%
Borussia Dortmund64%
Draw20%
Werder Bremen16%
Borussia Dortmund71%
Draw17%
Werder Bremen12%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
14°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 0.9 mm
- Wind 29 km/h
- Humidity 89%
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 73
Team strength
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
69
AttackIn forecast
56
80
DefenceIn forecast
45
95
Form indexContext
66
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
100%
Scored inContext
100%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.50
ShotsContext
13.75
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
35%
On target shareContext
47%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
75%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.67
BlocksContext
5.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
86%
Save rateContext
55%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
465
PassesContext
483
381
Accurate passesContext
411
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.19
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.25
FoulsContext
12.75
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
90%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
41%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
77%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.10
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.00
BlocksContext
5.30
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
80%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
486
PassesContext
444
410
Accurate passesContext
368
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.50
FoulsContext
10.30
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
WWWWW
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 95 · 15 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +5.4 vs expected
Werder Bremen
LWDW
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 7 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
14M. Beier
18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
13Arthur
44Y. Regeer
15L. Reis
17M. Grüll
20Chuky
18E. Dinkçi
10N. Füllkrug
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −9.8% · Defence line −28.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF N. Schlotterbeck Core 7.56 Def −14.7%
- DEF J. Ryerson Starter 6.94 Def −9.2%
- MID K. Karetsas Starter 6.92 Att −5.6% Def −2.5%
- MID C. Chukwuemeka Rotation 6.56 Att −1.8% Def −0.8%
- MID E. Can Rotation 7.01 Att −1.7% Def −0.8%
- MID G. Konstantelias Rotation 6.90 Att −0.8% Def −0.4%
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −18.9% · Defence line −12.3% of weighted minutes
- MID S. Lynen Starter 6.79 Att −6.5% Def −4.9%
- MID J. Stage Starter 6.94 Att −6.0% Def −4.5%
- ATT J. Njinmah Rotation 6.63 Att −4.5%
- DEF N. Stark Rotation 6.72 Def −1.2%
- ATT K. Topp Rotation 6.39 Att −1.6%
- DEF F. Agu Rotation 6.60 Def −0.9%
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Werder Bremen+0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Werder Bremen · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.75 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets63% · 13%
- 16 May 2026Werder Bremen0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 13 Jan 2026Borussia Dortmund3–0Werder Bremen
- 25 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2–2Werder Bremen
- 31 Aug 2024Werder Bremen0–0Borussia Dortmund
- 9 Mar 2024Werder Bremen1–2Borussia Dortmund
- 20 Oct 2023Borussia Dortmund1–0Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.00 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 9.25 | 10.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 2.50 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 10.60 | 10.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.10 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.56
Red cards0.15league 0.08
Cards 5+45%league 22%
Fouls23.0league 22.5
Penalties0.29league 0.17
Home wins40%league 53%
Borussia Dortmund4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D25 Jan 25H · Werder Bremen2–22
- W2 Mar 24A · Union Berlin2–01
- L8 Nov 22A · VfL Wolfsburg0–22
- W7 May 22A · SpVgg Greuther Fürth3–11
Werder Bremen4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Apr 26A · VfB Stuttgart1–11
- D25 Jan 25A · Borussia Dortmund2–24
- L7 Oct 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–35
- L6 May 23H · Bayern München1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund4 games · scored 9 · conceded 2
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Werder Bremen4 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
