Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack+24%
Defense risk−15%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 0 pts · 5 played
LLLLL
1–2Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
17th · 3 pts · 5 played
LLWLL
Our take
Borussia Mönchengladbach were slight favourites.
1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Borussia Mönchengladbach were without K. Itakura and F. Honorat. 1899 Hoffenheim were without A. Hajdari and Bernardo. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 7.1 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 2.9 and had to travel 276 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel276 kmRest days7.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Borussia Mönchengladbach43%
Draw22%
1899 Hoffenheim34%
Borussia Mönchengladbach38%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim34%
Borussia Mönchengladbach44%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim34%
Borussia Mönchengladbach35%
Draw22%
1899 Hoffenheim43%
Borussia Mönchengladbach43%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim33%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 72%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
11°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 0.1 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 85%
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 36
Team strength
Borussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
34
AttackIn forecast
46
21
DefenceIn forecast
43
9
Form indexContext
15
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack+28%
Defense risk−20%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Borussia Mönchengladbach1899 Hoffenheim
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
3.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
2.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
60%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.40
ShotsContext
18.60
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
29%
On target shareContext
26%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
68%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
19.00
Shots allowedContext
14.40
9.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.25
BlocksContext
4.60
5.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
60%
Save rateContext
50%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
406
PassesContext
510
331
Accurate passesContext
418
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.44
Team ratingContext
6.82
15.20
FoulsContext
13.40
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.50
ShotsContext
17.50
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
30%
On target shareContext
27%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
68%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.14
15.10
Shots allowedContext
13.10
6.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.88
BlocksContext
4.20
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
70%
Save rateContext
48%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
429
PassesContext
506
354
Accurate passesContext
419
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.40
FoulsContext
14.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LLLLL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
1899 Hoffenheim
WLLLL
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel276 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 276 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
1M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich
2F. Chiarodia
4K. Diks
16P. Sander
36W. Mohya
10F. Neuhaus
47Z. Uno
29J. Scally
3I. Lidberg
38A. Bolin
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots
28K. Machida
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
22A. Prass
7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek
11F. Asllani
20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −18.9% · Defence line −17.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF K. Itakura Starter 6.02 Def −10.5%
- MID F. Honorat Starter 6.85 Att −10.9% Def −4.5%
- MID J. Castrop Rotation 6.53 Att −3.6% Def −1.5%
- MID J. Leszczyński Rotation 6.16 Att −3.3% Def −1.4%
- ATT T. Kleindienst Depth 6.18 Att −0.6%
- ATT N. Kühn Depth 7.11 Att −0.5%
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −2.4% · Defence line −22.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Hajdari Starter 6.87 Def −11.7%
- DEF Bernardo Starter 6.82 Def −9.2%
- MID P. Wimmer Rotation 6.40 Att −2.4% Def −1.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.5 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins2 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.90 – 1.90
Over 2.590%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets10% · 0%
- 16 May 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach4–01899 Hoffenheim
- 14 Jan 20261899 Hoffenheim5–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 3 May 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach4–41899 Hoffenheim
- 21 Dec 20241899 Hoffenheim1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 20 Apr 20241899 Hoffenheim4–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2 Dec 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.40 | 3.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 11.80 | 10.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 0.40 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 6.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.20 | 10.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.42
Red cards0.22league 0.09
Cards 5+50%league 19%
Fouls20.8league 22.8
Penalties0.22league 0.21
Home wins44%league 53%
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D21 Mar 26A · 1.FC Köln3–32
- L25 Jan 26H · VfB Stuttgart0–31
- W1 Mar 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–03
- W31 Aug 24A · VfL Bochum2–00
- L20 Apr 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–43
1899 Hoffenheim3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W9 May 26H · Werder Bremen1–01
- W19 Oct 24H · VfL Bochum3–11
- W20 Apr 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach5 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
2
0-15
6
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim5 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
4
0-15
1
7
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 15 · conceded 25
2
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
1
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
