Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
14th · 21 pts · 20 played
WLDLD
1–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 35 pts · 19 played
WLLWW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 7.1 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7.1 and had to travel 42 km.
Away travel42 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Borussia Mönchengladbach19%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen58%
Borussia Mönchengladbach22%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen53%
Borussia Mönchengladbach20%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen57%
Borussia Mönchengladbach14%
Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen66%
Borussia Mönchengladbach20%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen56%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 66
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachBayer Leverkusen
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
34
AttackIn forecast
87
21
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachBayer Leverkusen
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
55%
Scored inContext
84%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.42
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.68
37%
On target shareContext
35%
7.42
Shots in the boxContext
8.42
67%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.47
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.94
3.45
BlocksContext
3.13
3.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
70%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
422
PassesContext
601
348
Accurate passesContext
535
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.05
FoulsContext
8.95
10.55
Fouls sufferedContext
10.68
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
60%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
14.40
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
34%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
64%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.38
14.70
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.80
BlocksContext
3.25
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
80%
Save rateContext
80%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
429
PassesContext
607
346
Accurate passesContext
537
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.10
FoulsContext
8.20
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
0.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km530 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel42 km315 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 42 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 530 km | 315 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
26L. Ullrich
7K. Stöger
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
17J. Castrop
15H. Tabaković
9F. Honorat
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
13Arthur
10M. Tillman
7J. Hofmann
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–5 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 H | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 A | W 6–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 4–6 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 18 of 51 · 1.06 per game | 34 of 54 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins3 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 18 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 23 Aug 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 27 Jan 2024Bayer Leverkusen0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 26 Aug 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 21 May 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.37 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 63% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 58% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 16% | |
| Games | 20 | 19 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.26 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.21 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 9.47 | 9.74 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 2.74 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 5.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 5/20 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 5/20 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.70 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 4.10 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.72
Red cards0.14league 0.18
Cards 5+47%league 37%
Fouls23.5league 21.0
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins38%league 45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach8 with this referee
Record0-3-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L14 Jan 26A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–51
- D6 Apr 25A · FC St. Pauli1–12
- D8 Feb 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- D9 Nov 24A · RB Leipzig0–02
- L30 Mar 24H · SC Freiburg0–31
Bayer Leverkusen8 with this referee
Record8-0-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W4 Oct 25H · Union Berlin2–01
- W26 Apr 25H · FC Augsburg2–00
- W30 Nov 24A · Union Berlin2–12
- W5 May 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt5–10
- W17 Dec 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach20 games · scored 24 · conceded 33
2
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
7
6
61-75
6
8
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen19 games · scored 38 · conceded 26
6
3
0-15
8
4
16-30
10
9
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
