Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
14th · 21 pts · 20 played
WLDLD
1–1Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 35 pts · 19 played
WLLWW
Borussia Mönchengladbach19.1%fair odds 5.23
Draw22.7%fair odds 4.40
Bayer Leverkusen58.1%fair odds 1.72
Expected goals1.04 – 1.96total 3.00
Likeliest score1–110.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Mönchengladbach ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Mönchengladbach goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%9.35
- 1–29.9%10.06
- 0–29.5%10.48
- 0–19.2%10.86
- 1–36.5%15.40
- 0–36.2%16.05
- 0–05.5%18.14
- 2–15.3%18.90
- 2–25.2%19.30
- 1–04.6%21.52
Winning margin
2.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 50.63
5.1%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 19.69
12.1%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 8.28
22.7%
Draw
fair 4.40
23.2%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.32
17.9%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 5.58
17.0%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 5.87
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 19.1% | 19.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 22.7% | 24.4% | -1.7 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 58.1% | 55.7% | +2.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 52.0% | +5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 52.4% | +3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.04 | 0.98 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 1.96 | 1.78 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win19.1%5.23
- Draw22.7%4.40
- Bayer Leverkusen win58.1%1.72
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw41.9%2.39
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or Bayer Leverkusen77.3%1.29
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw80.9%1.24
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach24.8%4.04
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen75.2%1.33
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.6%1.24
- Over 2.557.7%1.73
- Over 3.535.3%2.83
- Over 4.518.5%5.41
- Under 1.519.4%5.16
- Under 2.542.3%2.36
- Under 3.564.7%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.545.4%2.20
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes10.5%9.49
- Draw and yes17.2%5.81
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes28.4%3.52
Team goals
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.564.7%1.54
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.528.0%3.57
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.58.8%11.33
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.585.9%1.16
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.558.3%1.72
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.531.2%3.20
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet14.1%7.09
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet35.3%2.84
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil8.6%11.64
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil29.8%3.36
Handicap
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.57.1%14.18
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −2.52.0%50.63
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.592.9%1.08
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.598.0%1.02
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.535.0%2.86
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.565.0%1.54
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored185
Favourite won56.2%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right56.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.2% | 42.3% |
| 40–50% | 56 | 45.2% | 41.1% |
| 50–60% | 52 | 55.1% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.7% | 75.9% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 85.8% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 165 of 185 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5549 | 0.5516 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 165 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 185 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.