Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 3 pts · 7 played
LDLDL
0–3Full time
Bayern München
1st · 21 pts · 7 played
WWWWW
Borussia Mönchengladbach9.4%fair odds 10.59
Draw15.6%fair odds 6.42
Bayern München75.0%fair odds 1.33
Expected goals0.86 – 2.65total 3.51
Likeliest score0–210.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Mönchengladbach ↓ · Bayern München → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Mönchengladbach goals, columns Bayern München goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.5%9.54
- 0–39.2%10.82
- 1–29.0%11.06
- 1–38.0%12.54
- 0–17.6%13.24
- 1–17.2%13.91
- 0–46.1%16.34
- 1–45.3%18.94
- 2–23.9%25.65
- 2–33.4%29.07
Winning margin
0.7%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 147.65
2.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 44.60
6.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 15.33
15.6%
Draw
fair 6.42
20.8%
Bayern München by 1
fair 4.82
21.1%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.74
33.1%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 3.02
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
28%5+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Bayern München goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 9.4% | 10.4% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 15.6% | 17.9% | -2.3 pp |
| Bayern München win | 75.0% | 71.7% | +3.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 60.1% | +8.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 49.3% | +4.7 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.86 | 0.78 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.65 | 2.33 | +0.32 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win9.4%10.59
- Draw15.6%6.42
- Bayern München win75.0%1.33
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw25.0%4.00
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or Bayern München84.4%1.18
- Double chance Bayern München or draw90.6%1.10
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach11.2%8.94
- Draw no bet Bayern München88.8%1.13
Goals
- Over 0.596.6%1.03
- Over 1.586.9%1.15
- Over 2.568.1%1.47
- Over 3.546.5%2.15
- Over 4.527.6%3.62
- Under 1.513.1%7.62
- Under 2.531.9%3.13
- Under 3.553.5%1.87
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.546.9%2.13
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes5.7%17.51
- Draw and yes12.2%8.17
- Bayern München win and yes36.1%2.77
Team goals
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.557.8%1.73
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.521.4%4.68
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.55.7%17.59
- Bayern München over 0.592.9%1.08
- Bayern München over 1.574.2%1.35
- Bayern München over 2.549.3%2.03
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet7.1%14.11
- Bayern München clean sheet42.2%2.37
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil3.7%26.79
- Bayern München win to nil38.9%2.57
Handicap
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.52.9%34.25
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −2.50.7%147.65
- Bayern München +1.597.1%1.03
- Bayern München +2.599.3%1.01
- Bayern München −1.554.2%1.84
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.545.8%2.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored64
Favourite won54.7%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.563
Over 2.5 called right64.1%
BTTS called right57.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 12 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 45.2% | 36.8% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 54.3% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 66.0% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 46 of 64 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5334 | 0.5440 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 58.7% | 58.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 46 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Werder Bremen 1–0 Union Berlin51·25·24
- ✓FC St. Pauli 0–3 1899 Hoffenheim36·26·38
- ✗SC Freiburg 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt37·26·37
- ✓Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund60·21·19
- ✗1.FC Köln 1–1 FC Augsburg44·26·30
- ✗1. FC Heidenheim 2–2 Werder Bremen29·26·45
- ✓RB Leipzig 2–1 Hamburger SV66·20·14
- ✓FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen28·25·48
- ✓VfL Wolfsburg 0–3 VfB Stuttgart35·26·40
- ✓Union Berlin 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach44·26·29
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 64 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.