Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 3 pts · 7 played
LDLDL
0–3Full time
Bayern München
1st · 21 pts · 7 played
WWWWW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 37). Absences weigh more on Bayern München. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 7.8 days of rest, Bayern München 6.9 and had to travel 501 km.
Away travel501 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Mönchengladbach9%
Draw16%
Bayern München75%
Borussia Mönchengladbach10%
Draw18%
Bayern München72%
Borussia Mönchengladbach9%
Draw15%
Bayern München76%
Borussia Mönchengladbach6%
Draw12%
Bayern München81%
Borussia Mönchengladbach10%
Draw18%
Bayern München72%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 82
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachBayern München
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
34
AttackIn forecast
96
21
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachBayern München
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.86
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.57
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
2.36
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+1.50
43%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
13.14
ShotsContext
17.43
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.43
37%
On target shareContext
48%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
11.71
67%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
22%
2.80
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.29
Shots allowedContext
9.29
5.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
3.14
BlocksContext
3.50
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
53%
Save rateContext
77%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
458
PassesContext
631
389
Accurate passesContext
562
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.32
12.29
FoulsContext
11.14
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.90
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
2.61
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.60
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+1.29
40%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.50
ShotsContext
18.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.10
37%
On target shareContext
48%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
13.10
67%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
21%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
15.80
Shots allowedContext
8.50
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
4.30
BlocksContext
2.78
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
59%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
445
PassesContext
637
375
Accurate passesContext
571
84%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.29
10.60
FoulsContext
11.20
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,002 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel501 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 17 Oct | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 501 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,002 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
20L. Netz
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
17J. Castrop
7K. Stöger
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
9F. Honorat
15H. Tabaković
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
20T. Bischof
3M. Kim
2D. Upamecano
23S. Boey
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
9H. Kane
17M. Olise
11N. Jackson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Bayern München-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Bayern München · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 4–6 H | W 3–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–4 H | W 4–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins2 draws4 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 10 May 2025Bayern München2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 11 Jan 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1Bayern München
- 3 Feb 2024Bayern München3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 2 Sep 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2Bayern München
- 18 Feb 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach3–2Bayern München
- 27 Aug 2022Bayern München1–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 3.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 0.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.43 | 3.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 100% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 3.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 0.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.43 | 3.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 100% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 9.28 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 4.14 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.44 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.00 | 9.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.60 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 4.31
Red cards0.18league 0.22
Cards 5+48%league 44%
Fouls23.6league 22.8
Penalties0.16league 0.41
Home wins34%league 41%
Borussia Mönchengladbach7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25H · Hamburger SV0–02
- L17 May 25H · VfL Wolfsburg0–10
- L7 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 051–30
- D28 Apr 24H · Union Berlin0–02
- D10 Feb 24H · SV Darmstadt 980–00
Bayern München7 with this referee
Record6-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Feb 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt4–01
- W24 Feb 24H · RB Leipzig2–13
- W20 Dec 23A · VfL Wolfsburg2–12
- W21 Oct 23A · FSV Mainz 053–12
- W16 Oct 22H · SC Freiburg5–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach7 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Bayern München7 games · scored 27 · conceded 4
3
0-15
7
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 39 · conceded 6
6
0-15
10
1
16-30
8
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
