Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 2 pts · 4 played
DLLD
4–6Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 6 pts · 4 played
WWLL
Borussia Mönchengladbach26.7%fair odds 3.75
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.03
Eintracht Frankfurt48.5%fair odds 2.06
Expected goals1.23 – 1.73total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Mönchengladbach ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Mönchengladbach goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.62
- 1–29.5%10.49
- 0–18.4%11.96
- 0–27.7%12.92
- 2–16.8%14.74
- 2–25.9%17.02
- 1–05.8%17.30
- 0–05.7%17.39
- 1–35.5%18.17
- 0–34.5%22.39
Winning margin
3.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 27.49
7.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 13.22
15.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 6.47
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.03
22.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 4.55
14.9%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 6.69
11.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 8.60
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 26.7% | 26.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 26.2% | -1.3 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 48.5% | 47.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 51.4% | +5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.9% | 54.8% | +4.1 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.23 | 1.14 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.73 | 1.59 | +0.14 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win26.7%3.75
- Draw24.8%4.03
- Eintracht Frankfurt win48.5%2.06
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw51.5%1.94
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or Eintracht Frankfurt75.2%1.33
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw73.3%1.36
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach35.5%2.82
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt64.5%1.55
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.556.9%1.76
- Over 3.534.5%2.90
- Over 4.517.9%5.60
- Under 1.519.9%5.03
- Under 2.543.1%2.32
- Under 3.565.5%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes58.9%1.70
- No41.1%2.43
- Yes and over 2.547.3%2.12
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes14.7%6.80
- Draw and yes19.1%5.24
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes25.1%3.98
Team goals
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.570.8%1.41
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.534.9%2.87
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.512.8%7.84
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.582.3%1.22
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.551.6%1.94
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.525.1%3.98
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet17.7%5.65
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet29.2%3.43
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil12.0%8.36
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil23.4%4.27
Handicap
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.511.2%8.93
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −2.53.6%27.49
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.588.8%1.13
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.596.4%1.04
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.526.6%3.76
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.573.4%1.36
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored41
Favourite won51.2%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.566
Over 2.5 called right68.3%
BTTS called right61.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.0% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 45.3% | 30.0% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.1% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 23 of 41 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5081 | 0.5072 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.3% | 45.6% |
| Favourite won | 56.5% | 65.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 23 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 41 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.