Bournemouth vs Chelsea – 6 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 14th · 19 pts · 14 played LLDLL

0–0Full time

Chelsea 4th · 24 pts · 14 played WWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 69). Bournemouth had 3.8 days of rest, Chelsea 2.8 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 2

Bournemouth32%

Draw25%

Chelsea43%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.62

Bournemouth31%

Draw27%

Chelsea42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.46

Bournemouth31%

Draw25%

Chelsea43%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.61

Bournemouth25%

Draw24%

Chelsea51%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.81

Bournemouth32%

Draw27%

Chelsea42%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.47

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 194

Team strength

Bournemouth

Chelsea

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

83 AttackIn forecast 77

82 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Chelsea

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.79

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.07

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

79% Scored inContext 93%

29% Clean sheetsContext 43%

13.07 ShotsContext 14.14

4.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.21

37% On target shareContext 37%

8.46 Shots in the boxContext 9.36

59% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.21 OffsidesContext 2.17

11.43 Shots allowedContext 9.79

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.23

3.14 BlocksContext 2.62

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

64% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 59%

442 PassesContext 525

363 Accurate passesContext 455

82% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.86 FoulsContext 11.43

10.79 Fouls sufferedContext 12.57

2.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.93

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.21

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

70% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.60 ShotsContext 16.00

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

39% On target shareContext 38%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

56% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.30 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.40 Shots allowedContext 7.70

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

3.70 BlocksContext 2.00

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.88

63% Save rateContext 65%

56% PossessionIn forecast 58%

475 PassesContext 514

396 Accurate passesContext 448

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.80 FoulsContext 13.90

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km933 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel151 km544 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Dec	2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	933 km	544 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	2 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 18B. Diakité 15A. Smith

16M. Tavernier 8A. Scott

24A. Semenyo 19J. Kluivert 20Álex Jiménez

9Evanilson

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

8E. Fernández 24R. James

49A. Garnacho 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

9L. Delap

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Chelsea-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 2.00points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-1
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 0.71

Chelsea · Away 1.86points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 2.14
Conceded: 1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Chelsea
Sunderland	L 2–3 A	L 1–2 H
West Ham	D 2–2 H	W 5–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 A
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	D 0–0 H
Fulham	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Leeds	D 2–2 A	L 1–3 A
Brighton	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 H
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 H
Liverpool	L 2–4 A	W 2–1 H
Points	18 of 30 · 1.80 per game	19 of 30 · 1.90 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Bournemouth wins2 draws4 Chelsea wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 50%

14 Jan 2025Chelsea2–2Bournemouth
14 Sep 2024Bournemouth0–1Chelsea
19 May 2024Chelsea2–1Bournemouth
17 Sep 2023Bournemouth0–0Chelsea
6 May 2023Bournemouth1–3Chelsea
27 Dec 2022Chelsea2–0Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.79
Conceded per game	1.71	1.07
Match goals	3.21	2.86	2.99
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	64%	64%	57%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	57%	60%
Clean sheets	29%	43%
Failed to score	21%	7%
Games	14	14

	Bournemouth	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.60
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	3.40	2.80	2.99
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	57%
Over 3.5	70%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.31	6.07
Corners conceded	4.92	3.79
Match total	10.23	9.86	9.90
Over 8.5	69% 9/13	79% 11/14
Over 9.5	62% 8/13	71% 10/14
Over 10.5	54% 7/13	43% 6/14
Cards
Cards	2.79	2.21
Opponent cards	2.29	2.50
Match total	5.08	4.71	3.75
Over 3.5	79% 11/14	64% 9/14
Over 4.5	50% 7/14	57% 8/14

	Bournemouth	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.88
Corners conceded	5.10	2.88
Match total	10.10	8.76	9.90
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	2.40
Match total	4.70	4.50	3.75
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 194 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.60league 3.64

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+34%league 39%

Fouls22.5league 21.9

Penalties0.27league 0.19

Home wins43%league 49%

Bournemouth7 with this referee

Record4-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 2

D27 Sep 25A · Leeds2–22
W14 Apr 25H · Fulham1–03
L25 Feb 25A · Brighton1–21
W2 Nov 24H · Manchester City2–12
W30 Sep 24H · Southampton3–12

Chelsea19 with this referee

Record7-4-8 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6 Pens for · against3 · 1

W22 Aug 25A · West Ham5–11
D6 Apr 25A · Brentford0–03
L22 Feb 25A · Aston Villa1–23
D10 Nov 24H · Arsenal1–14
L20 Apr 24A · Manchester City0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.