Bournemouth vs Everton – 2 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 14 Tue, Dec 2 · 19:30 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 11th · 19 pts · 13 played WLLDL

0–1Full time

Everton 14th · 18 pts · 13 played LDWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Bournemouth had 3.2 days of rest, Everton 3.1 and had to travel 308 km.

Away travel308 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Bournemouth48%

Draw25%

Everton27%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.23

Bournemouth47%

Draw26%

Everton27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Bournemouth48%

Draw25%

Everton26%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.19

Bournemouth40%

Draw26%

Everton34%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.37

Bournemouth46%

Draw26%

Everton28%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.18

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 77

Team strength

Bournemouth

Everton

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

83 AttackIn forecast 61

82 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Everton

1.62 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.08

1.77 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.31

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

85% Scored inContext 69%

31% Clean sheetsContext 31%

13.69 ShotsContext 10.38

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.92

37% On target shareContext 28%

8.46 Shots in the boxContext 6.85

59% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.31 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.31 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.46

3.00 BlocksContext 5.23

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.92

63% Save rateContext 66%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

439 PassesContext 385

360 Accurate passesContext 309

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.77 FoulsContext 10.08

10.54 Fouls sufferedContext 11.69

2.69 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.40 ShotsContext 10.70

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

39% On target shareContext 28%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

55% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.30 OffsidesContext 2.17

11.70 Shots allowedContext 13.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.40 BlocksContext 4.80

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

63% Save rateContext 64%

55% PossessionIn forecast 44%

466 PassesContext 386

387 Accurate passesContext 314

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.93

13.00 FoulsContext 10.60

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km933 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel308 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov	3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	933 km	99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 18B. Diakité 44V. Milosavljević 20Álex Jiménez

8A. Scott 12T. Adams

24A. Semenyo 19J. Kluivert 21A. Adli

22E. Kroupi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 15J. O'Brien 6J. Tarkowski 37J. Garner

22K. Dewsbury-Hall 42T. Iroegbunam

18J. Grealish 24C. Alcaraz 10I. Ndiaye

11T. Barry

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth-0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Everton+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 2.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.67

Everton · Away 1.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Everton
Sunderland	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 A
West Ham	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Aston Villa	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 H
Manchester City	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Crystal Palace	D 3–3 A	W 2–1 H
Fulham	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Leeds	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 A
Newcastle	D 0–0 H	L 1–4 H
Brighton	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	L 0–3 H
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 3–2 A
Liverpool	L 2–4 A	L 1–2 A
Points	16 of 36 · 1.33 per game	15 of 36 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Bournemouth wins0 draws2 Everton wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

4 Jan 2025Bournemouth1–0Everton
31 Aug 2024Everton2–3Bournemouth
30 Mar 2024Bournemouth2–1Everton
7 Oct 2023Everton3–0Bournemouth
28 May 2023Everton1–0Bournemouth
12 Nov 2022Bournemouth3–0Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.62	1.08
Conceded per game	1.77	1.31
Match goals	3.38	2.38	2.93
Over 1.5	77%	77%
Over 2.5	69%	38%	56%
Over 3.5	62%	15%
Both teams scored	62%	46%	58%
Clean sheets	31%	31%
Failed to score	15%	31%
Games	13	13

	Bournemouth	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	0.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.40
Match goals	3.60	2.30	2.93
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	56%
Over 3.5	70%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	4.15
Corners conceded	4.83	5.54
Match total	10.50	9.69	9.89
Over 8.5	75% 9/12	62% 8/13
Over 9.5	67% 8/12	46% 6/13
Over 10.5	58% 7/12	38% 5/13
Cards
Cards	2.77	2.08
Opponent cards	2.23	1.69
Match total	5.00	3.77	3.84
Over 3.5	77% 10/13	54% 7/13
Over 4.5	46% 6/13	46% 6/13

	Bournemouth	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.80
Corners conceded	4.90	6.10
Match total	10.20	10.90	9.89
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.00
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	4.90	3.90	3.84
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.53league 3.72

Red cards0.22league 0.12

Cards 5+35%league 42%

Fouls22.2league 22.1

Penalties0.26league 0.20

Home wins51%league 51%

Bournemouth7 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

L22 Feb 25H · Wolves0–14
D17 Feb 24A · Newcastle2–23
L30 Sep 23H · Arsenal0–40
L13 May 23A · Crystal Palace0–22
W18 Feb 23A · Wolves1–03

Everton1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W5 Oct 25H · Crystal Palace2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.