Premier League Gameweek 35 Sat, May 8 · 15:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Manchester United 13th · 7 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel308 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bournemouth—%
Draw—%
Manchester United—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

Forecast from 23 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bournemouth and Manchester United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

BournemouthManchester United
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 77
83 AttackIn forecast 72
82 DefenceIn forecast 80
74 Form indexContext 38
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BournemouthManchester United
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
86% Scored inContext 71%
14% Clean sheetsContext 0%
15.14 ShotsContext 19.57
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
34% On target shareContext 26%
9.57 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
64% Box shareContext 55%
9% ConversionContext 7%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.50
9.57 Shots allowedContext 11.00
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
2.80 BlocksContext 2.86
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
55% Save rateContext 68%
52% PossessionIn forecast 55%
433 PassesContext 521
351 Accurate passesContext 450
81% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.84
13.00 FoulsContext 9.57
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.43
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.71
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
15.80 ShotsContext 17.60
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
32% On target shareContext 31%
9.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
62% Box shareContext 60%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.29
10.30 Shots allowedContext 11.00
4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.29 BlocksContext 3.20
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78
61% Save rateContext 69%
53% PossessionIn forecast 53%
434 PassesContext 507
353 Accurate passesContext 439
81% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.89
12.20 FoulsContext 10.00
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km705 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts
Manchester United
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel308 km258 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bournemouth Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 1 May7Premier League 2026-2027, 1 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways705 km258 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson
Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Manchester United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Manchester United · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-3-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBournemouthManchester United
Everton D 1–1 H D 2–2 A
Manchester City L 1–2 A L 0–1 H
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Bournemouth wins4 draws2 Manchester United wins
Goals per game1.88 – 1.63 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%
  • 20 Mar 2026Bournemouth2–2Manchester United
  • 15 Dec 2025Manchester United4–4Bournemouth
  • 27 Apr 2025Bournemouth1–1Manchester United
  • 22 Dec 2024Manchester United0–3Bournemouth
  • 13 Apr 2024Bournemouth2–2Manchester United
  • 9 Dec 2023Manchester United0–3Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BournemouthManchester UnitedForecast
Scored per game 1.291.43
Conceded per game 1.861.43
Match goals 3.142.86
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 57%29%
Over 3.5 43%29%
Both teams scored 71%71%
Clean sheets 14%0%
Failed to score 14%29%
Games77
BournemouthManchester UnitedForecast
Scored per game 1.501.70
Conceded per game 1.501.20
Match goals 3.002.90
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 60%40%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BournemouthManchester UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won4.716.14
Corners conceded3.863.57
Match total8.579.719.49
Over 8.529% 2/743% 3/7
Over 9.529% 2/743% 3/7
Over 10.529% 2/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards3.001.71
Opponent cards1.572.86
Match total4.574.574.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/729% 2/7
BournemouthManchester UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won4.605.89
Corners conceded4.603.22
Match total9.209.119.49
Over 8.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Over 9.540% 4/1033% 3/9
Over 10.530% 3/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.801.60
Opponent cards1.802.30
Match total4.603.904.17
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Manchester United7 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

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Newcastle Coventry May 815:00 Bournemouth Manchester United May 815:00 Fulham Ipswich May 815:00 Everton Hull City May 815:00 Tottenham Chelsea May 815:00 Manchester City Liverpool May 815:00 Brighton Sunderland May 815:00 Brentford Aston Villa May 815:00 Leeds Arsenal May 815:00 Nottingham Forest Crystal Palace May 815:00