Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel285 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Newcastle—%
Draw—%
Coventry—%
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
Forecast from 23 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Newcastle and Coventry. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Newcastle
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Newcastle
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against1.60
-
Alert
Newcastle
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Coventry
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Newcastle
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Newcastle
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against1.60
-
Alert
Coventry
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
NewcastleCoventry
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
61
AttackIn forecast
47
61
DefenceIn forecast
59
35
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCoventry
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleCoventry
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
86%
Scored inContext
43%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.29
ShotsContext
10.29
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
29%
On target shareContext
32%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
62%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.43
Shots allowedContext
17.43
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
7.57
BlocksContext
6.83
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
62%
Save rateContext
46%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
430
PassesContext
323
359
Accurate passesContext
247
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.14
FoulsContext
11.00
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
59%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.33
17.50
Shots allowedContext
15.20
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
6.90
BlocksContext
5.78
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
68%
Save rateContext
49%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
452
PassesContext
380
380
Accurate passesContext
304
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.00
FoulsContext
9.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
DLWLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km33 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
Coventry
LLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel285 km55 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Coventry |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 1 May | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 1 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 285 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 33 km | 55 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Last XI · not confirmed
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
7Joelinton
6Nico González
11H. Barnes
28J. Willock
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Coventry
Last XI · not confirmed
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes
8C. Yirenkyi
23S. Thomas-Asante
5J. Rudoni
7T. Sakamoto
49S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Coventry
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Coventry · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Newcastle wins0 draws1 Coventry wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 12 Oct 2026Coventry4–1Newcastle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Newcastle | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 29% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 57% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 8.42 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.85 | 2.72 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Newcastle | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 7.78 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.70 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Coventry7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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