Premier League Gameweek 35 Sat, May 8 · 15:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel272 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Leeds—%
Draw—%
Arsenal—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

Forecast from 23 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Leeds and Arsenal. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LeedsArsenal
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
73 Current StrengthIn forecast 94
69 AttackIn forecast 86
77 DefenceIn forecast 95
64 Form indexContext 92
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—
Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LeedsArsenal
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
86% Scored inContext 86%
29% Clean sheetsContext 57%
12.00 ShotsContext 12.29
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
33% On target shareContext 34%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.71
65% Box shareContext 73%
11% ConversionContext 13%
2.43 OffsidesContext 4.00
14.00 Shots allowedContext 11.14
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
5.17 BlocksContext 3.00
3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
86% Save rateContext 71%
47% PossessionIn forecast 61%
385 PassesContext 520
302 Accurate passesContext 453
78% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.89 Team ratingContext 7.06
12.71 FoulsContext 10.14
11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 15.86
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
80% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 60%
11.50 ShotsContext 13.50
3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
31% On target shareContext 34%
7.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.30
62% Box shareContext 71%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.40 OffsidesContext 3.60
14.90 Shots allowedContext 10.80
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
4.89 BlocksContext 3.10
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63
77% Save rateContext 75%
46% PossessionIn forecast 57%
376 PassesContext 508
292 Accurate passesContext 441
78% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.92 Team ratingContext 7.06
11.90 FoulsContext 11.20
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km530 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts
Arsenal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel272 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Leeds Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 1 May7Premier League 2026-2027, 1 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways530 km301 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor 18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Arsenal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-3-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.75
Arsenal · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentLeedsArsenal
Brighton D 1–1 A L 0–3 A
Nottingham Forest W 1–0 A W 1–0 A
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

0 Leeds wins1 draws8 Arsenal wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.89 Over 2.578% Both scored56% Clean sheets11% · 44%
  • 10 Oct 2026Arsenal2–1Leeds
  • 31 Jan 2026Leeds0–4Arsenal
  • 23 Aug 2025Arsenal5–0Leeds
  • 1 Apr 2023Arsenal4–1Leeds
  • 16 Oct 2022Leeds0–1Arsenal
  • 8 May 2022Arsenal2–1Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LeedsArsenalForecast
Scored per game 1.291.57
Conceded per game 0.860.71
Match goals 2.142.29
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 29%57%
Over 3.5 14%0%
Both teams scored 71%29%
Clean sheets 29%57%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games77
LeedsArsenalForecast
Scored per game 1.101.70
Conceded per game 1.000.60
Match goals 2.102.30
Over 1.5 70%70%
Over 2.5 30%60%
Over 3.5 10%0%
Both teams scored 60%30%
Clean sheets 30%60%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LeedsArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.71
Corners conceded4.144.00
Match total8.148.719.49
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.529% 2/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.861.29
Opponent cards2.433.29
Match total4.294.584.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
LeedsArsenalLeague
Corners
Corners won4.104.67
Corners conceded5.704.44
Match total9.809.119.49
Over 8.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 9.560% 6/1044% 4/9
Over 10.540% 4/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.801.60
Opponent cards2.002.80
Match total3.804.404.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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