Brentford vs Manchester United – 27 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 27 · 12:30 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 17th · 4 pts · 5 played LWLDL

3–1Full time

Manchester United 11th · 7 pts · 5 played LDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Manchester United. Brentford had 6.7 days of rest, Manchester United 6.8 and had to travel 257 km.

Away travel257 kmRest days6.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Brentford43%

Draw26%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.30

Brentford41%

Draw27%

Manchester United32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Brentford41%

Draw26%

Manchester United33%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.32

Brentford36%

Draw26%

Manchester United38%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.46

Brentford44%

Draw27%

Manchester United30%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.22

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeCraig Pawson

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 127

Team strength

Brentford

Manchester United

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

73 AttackIn forecast 72

73 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Manchester United

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.83

100% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.20 ShotsContext 16.20

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

39% On target shareContext 27%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

77% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.80

14.00 Shots allowedContext 9.20

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

5.20 BlocksContext 3.00

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

58% Save rateContext 50%

39% PossessionIn forecast 53%

312 PassesContext 450

244 Accurate passesContext 370

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.80 FoulsContext 10.00

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 0.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.62

100% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 15.60

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

41% On target shareContext 31%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

83% Box shareContext 66%

16% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.22

14.40 Shots allowedContext 8.50

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.60

5.30 BlocksContext 3.11

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.71

66% Save rateContext 52%

44% PossessionIn forecast 56%

343 PassesContext 475

274 Accurate passesContext 396

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.70 FoulsContext 9.70

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest6.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km26 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel257 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	257 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	26 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

2A. Hickey 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

18Y. Yarmoliuk 6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Bayındır(G)

23L. Shaw 5J. Maguire 4M. de Ligt

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 25M. Ugarte 2Diogo Dalot

10Matheus Cunha 19B. Mbeumo

30B. Šeško

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+2.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Manchester United-1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Manchester United · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Manchester United
Fulham	L 1–3 A	D 1–1 A
Chelsea	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Brentford wins1 draws5 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.88 Over 2.575% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%

4 May 2025Brentford4–3Manchester United
19 Oct 2024Manchester United2–1Brentford
30 Mar 2024Brentford1–1Manchester United
7 Oct 2023Manchester United2–1Brentford
5 Apr 2023Manchester United1–0Brentford
13 Aug 2022Brentford4–0Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	2.00	1.60
Match goals	3.20	2.80	2.88
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

	Brentford	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	2.00	1.60
Match goals	3.20	2.80	2.88
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	60%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	4.20
Match total	10.20	9.20	9.79
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.00
Opponent cards	2.40	3.20
Match total	4.20	4.20	3.71
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5

	Brentford	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.89
Corners conceded	4.80	4.44
Match total	9.80	9.33	9.79
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.80
Match total	4.70	4.80	3.71
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Craig Pawson 127 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.56

Red cards0.11league 0.16

Cards 5+40%league 40%

Fouls22.9league 22.4

Penalties0.23league 0.24

Home wins43%league 46%

Brentford3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

D25 May 25A · Wolves1–11
L16 Sep 23A · Newcastle0–15
W2 Jan 22H · Aston Villa2–12

Manchester United15 with this referee

Record5-5-5 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L22 Dec 24H · Bournemouth0–31
L24 Aug 24A · Brighton1–22
W19 May 24A · Brighton2–03
W26 Dec 23H · Aston Villa3–21
D16 Oct 22H · Newcastle0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.