Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brentford were slight favourites.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 52). Brentford had 3.2 days of rest, Sunderland 3.2 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Brentford60%
Draw23%
Sunderland18%
Brentford59%
Draw23%
Sunderland18%
Brentford60%
Draw23%
Sunderland18%
Brentford52%
Draw25%
Sunderland23%
Brentford59%
Draw23%
Sunderland18%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
No weather data yet
RefereeMatt Donohue
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 131
Team strength
Brentford
Sunderland
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
73
AttackIn forecast
62
73
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordSunderland
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.95
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
75%
Scored inContext
65%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
9.90
ShotsContext
9.55
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.26
42%
On target shareContext
33%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.24
72%
Box shareContext
71%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.12
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.75
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.50
BlocksContext
4.40
3.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.68
69%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
382
PassesContext
366
301
Accurate passesContext
288
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.05
FoulsContext
9.70
8.95
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
8.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
43%
On target shareContext
40%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.71
73%
Box shareContext
68%
19%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.50
Shots allowedContext
16.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.30
BlocksContext
5.00
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
72%
Save rateContext
72%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
417
PassesContext
345
331
Accurate passesContext
265
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.50
FoulsContext
10.20
8.89
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km560 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Sunderland
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel387 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 560 km | 774 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.8 | 9.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
3R. Henry
22N. Collins
20K. Ajer
33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt
18Y. Yarmoliuk
7K. Schade
8M. Jensen
23K. Lewis-Potter
9Thiago
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
6L. Geertruida
34G. Xhaka
24S. Adingra
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
9B. Brobbey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
2.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sunderland · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-4
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Brentford | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | W 4–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Tottenham | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | W 4–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Burnley | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| West Ham | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Manchester United | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Fulham | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 30 of 57 · 1.58 per game | 27 of 57 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Brentford wins0 draws1 Sunderland wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025Sunderland2–1Brentford
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.95 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 45% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 35% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Brentford | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.05 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.95 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.45 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 13/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 11/19 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 10/19 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.85 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 11/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Brentford | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 8.90 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matt Donohue 131 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 3.67
Red cards0.16league 0.10
Cards 5+48%league 37%
Fouls23.1league 21.4
Penalties0.09league 0.20
Home wins47%league 45%
Brentford2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Dec 25A · Wolves2–04
- W11 May 24A · Bournemouth2–12
Sunderland6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W1 Jan 25H · Sheffield Utd2–14
- W13 Apr 24A · West Brom1–03
- L23 Dec 23H · Coventry0–33
- L29 Nov 23H · Huddersfield1–22
- L15 Mar 23H · Sheffield Utd1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford20 games · scored 32 · conceded 28
5
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
13
9
76-90
Sunderland20 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
5
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
5
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
