Brentford vs Wolves – 16 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 30 Mon, Mar 16 · 20:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 7th · 44 pts · 29 played WDLWD

2–2Full time

Wolves 20th · 16 pts · 30 played DDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were clear favourites.

Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Wolves. Brentford had 13 days of rest, Wolves 13 and had to travel 174 km.

Away travel174 kmRest days13 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brentford60%

Draw23%

Wolves17%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.96

Brentford61%

Draw22%

Wolves16%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.91

Brentford61%

Draw22%

Wolves17%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.94

Brentford53%

Draw25%

Wolves23%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.07

Brentford59%

Draw23%

Wolves18%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.93

Over 2.5 56% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 135

Team strength

Brentford

Wolves

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

73 AttackIn forecast 41

73 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Wolves

1.52 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.73

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

69% Scored inContext 50%

24% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.48 ShotsContext 9.07

4.03 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.34

39% On target shareContext 36%

8.04 Shots in the boxContext 5.82

72% Box shareContext 61%

15% ConversionContext 8%

2.09 OffsidesContext 1.86

12.55 Shots allowedContext 13.97

3.97 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.83

4.24 BlocksContext 4.54

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

69% Save rateContext 65%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

394 PassesContext 370

312 Accurate passesContext 295

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.07 FoulsContext 13.30

9.46 Fouls sufferedContext 10.93

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 29 and 30 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

60% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.60 ShotsContext 10.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 38%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

73% Box shareContext 55%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.89

11.60 Shots allowedContext 14.40

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.40 BlocksContext 4.11

2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

72% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 41%

442 PassesContext 374

360 Accurate passesContext 303

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.40 FoulsContext 11.10

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km278 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel174 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar	13Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	174 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	278 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5	25

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 4S. van den Berg 33M. Kayode

6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 8M. Jensen 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1José Sá(G)

37L. Krejčí 4S. Bueno 15Y. Mosquera

3Hugo Bueno 8João Gomes 7André 38J. Tchatchoua

36Mateus Mané 27J. Bellegarde

9A. Armstrong

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford-0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Wolves+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home 1.79points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 7-4-3
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 1.07

Wolves · Away 0.29points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 0-4-10
Scored: 0.36
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Brentford	Wolves
Bournemouth	D 0–0 AW 4–1 H	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Burnley	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H	L 2–3 H
Brighton	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
Arsenal	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A
Newcastle	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Aston Villa	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H
Chelsea	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 1–3 HL 0–3 A
Sunderland	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Everton	W 4–2 A	D 1–1 AL 2–3 H
Tottenham	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Leeds	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 H
Crystal Palace	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Liverpool	W 3–2 H	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
West Ham	W 2–0 A	W 3–0 H
Manchester City	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 AL 0–4 H
Manchester United	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 AL 1–4 H
Fulham	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 A
Points	41 of 84 · 1.46 per game	16 of 87 · 0.55 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Brentford wins2 draws3 Wolves wins

Goals per game1.67 – 1.44 Over 2.533% Both scored56% Clean sheets33% · 11%

20 Dec 2025Wolves0–2Brentford
25 May 2025Wolves1–1Brentford
5 Oct 2024Brentford5–3Wolves
10 Feb 2024Wolves0–2Brentford
27 Dec 2023Brentford1–4Wolves
15 Apr 2023Wolves2–0Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.52	0.73
Conceded per game	1.38	1.73
Match goals	2.90	2.47	2.92
Over 1.5	83%	77%
Over 2.5	48%	43%	56%
Over 3.5	38%	23%
Both teams scored	52%	43%	53%
Clean sheets	24%	13%
Failed to score	31%	50%
Games	29	30

	Brentford	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.80
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.92
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.18	3.33
Corners conceded	5.11	6.41
Match total	10.29	9.74	10.00
Over 8.5	75% 21/28	74% 20/27
Over 9.5	68% 19/28	67% 18/27
Over 10.5	57% 16/28	41% 11/27
Cards
Cards	1.97	2.23
Opponent cards	1.76	1.60
Match total	3.73	3.83	3.90
Over 3.5	55% 16/29	57% 17/30
Over 4.5	38% 11/29	40% 12/30

	Brentford	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.78
Corners conceded	5.10	5.78
Match total	10.60	9.56	10.00
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.40	1.90
Match total	3.20	4.10	3.90
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 135 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.97league 3.76

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+44%league 39%

Fouls21.0league 21.5

Penalties0.20league 0.21

Home wins48%league 42%

Brentford10 with this referee

Record4-2-4 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 0

W9 Nov 25H · Newcastle3–12
D13 Sep 25H · Chelsea2–23
W4 Jan 25A · Southampton5–00
L4 Nov 24A · Fulham1–21
L25 Aug 24A · Liverpool0–23

Wolves6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

D8 Mar 25H · Everton1–12
L24 Apr 24H · Bournemouth0–14
W6 May 23H · Aston Villa1–03
L12 Nov 22H · Arsenal0–23
L22 Aug 21H · Tottenham0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.