Brighton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Premier League
Gameweek 14 Wed, Dec 3 · 19:30
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton39.5%fair odds 2.53
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.85
Aston Villa34.5%fair odds 2.90
Expected goals1.50 – 1.39total 2.90
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brighton ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brighton goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.21
- 2–18.7%11.50
- 1–28.0%12.42
- 1–07.7%13.00
- 0–17.1%14.14
- 2–06.2%16.01
- 0–06.1%16.31
- 2–26.1%16.51
- 0–25.3%18.69
- 3–14.4%22.92
Winning margin
7.6%
Brighton by 3+
fair 13.20
11.9%
Brighton by 2
fair 8.39
20.0%
Brighton by 1
fair 5.00
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.85
18.5%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 5.41
10.2%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 9.79
5.8%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 17.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Brighton goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Aston Villa goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 39.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 27.2% | -1.2 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 34.5% | 33.8% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 50.2% | +5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.1% | 55.1% | +4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Brighton | 1.50 | 1.40 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.39 | 1.28 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brighton win39.5%2.53
- Draw26.0%3.85
- Aston Villa win34.5%2.90
- Double chance Brighton or draw65.5%1.53
- Double chance Brighton or Aston Villa74.0%1.35
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw60.5%1.65
- Draw no bet Brighton53.4%1.87
- Draw no bet Aston Villa46.6%2.15
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.3%1.81
- Over 3.533.0%3.03
- Over 4.516.8%5.96
- Under 1.520.9%4.79
- Under 2.544.7%2.24
- Under 3.567.0%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes59.1%1.69
- No40.9%2.44
- Yes and over 2.546.9%2.13
- Brighton win and yes20.8%4.81
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- Aston Villa win and yes18.4%5.43
Team goals
- Brighton over 0.577.8%1.29
- Brighton over 1.544.4%2.25
- Brighton over 2.519.2%5.20
- Aston Villa over 0.575.2%1.33
- Aston Villa over 1.540.6%2.47
- Aston Villa over 2.516.5%6.07
- Brighton clean sheet24.8%4.02
- Aston Villa clean sheet22.2%4.50
- Brighton win to nil18.7%5.34
- Aston Villa win to nil16.1%6.22
Handicap
- Brighton −1.519.5%5.13
- Brighton −2.57.6%13.20
- Aston Villa +1.580.5%1.24
- Aston Villa +2.592.4%1.08
- Aston Villa −1.516.0%6.24
- Brighton +1.584.0%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored133
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result40.4%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right57.1%
BTTS called right52.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.2% | 52.6% |
| 40–50% | 52 | 44.9% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 72.9% | 63.6% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 103 of 133 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5849 | 0.5674 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 56.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 103 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 133 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.