Brighton vs Aston Villa – 3 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 14 Wed, Dec 3 · 19:30 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 5th · 22 pts · 13 played LWDWW

3–4Full time

Aston Villa 4th · 24 pts · 13 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Brighton had 3.2 days of rest, Aston Villa 3.2 and had to travel 219 km.

Away travel219 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 3

Brighton40%

Draw26%

Aston Villa35%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.39

Brighton39%

Draw27%

Aston Villa34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Brighton40%

Draw26%

Aston Villa34%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.38

Brighton32%

Draw26%

Aston Villa42%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.56

Brighton39%

Draw27%

Aston Villa34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 121

Team strength

Brighton

Aston Villa

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

87 AttackIn forecast 83

85 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Aston Villa

1.62 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.23

1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.85

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

85% Scored inContext 62%

23% Clean sheetsContext 38%

12.62 ShotsContext 11.46

4.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.69

37% On target shareContext 32%

7.62 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

62% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.23 Shots allowedContext 12.31

3.46 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.38

2.83 BlocksContext 4.31

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

69% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

442 PassesContext 439

368 Accurate passesContext 372

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.00 FoulsContext 10.31

10.54 Fouls sufferedContext 14.92

2.54 Yellow cardsContext 1.54

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

+0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

90% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.90 ShotsContext 13.70

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

36% On target shareContext 40%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

61% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.57

11.60 Shots allowedContext 10.10

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.44 BlocksContext 3.89

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

73% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

452 PassesContext 456

377 Accurate passesContext 393

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.90 FoulsContext 10.56

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 16.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km487 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel219 km296 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	219 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	487 km	296 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	2.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

25D. Gómez 17C. Baleba

29M. De Cuyper 8B. Gruda 11Y. Minteh

9S. Tzimas

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40M. Bizot(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

24A. Onana 44B. Kamara

27M. Rogers 7J. McGinn 29E. Guessand

11O. Watkins

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Aston Villa+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 2.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Aston Villa · Away 1.33points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-2
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Aston Villa
Brentford	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 A	L 0–3 H
Leeds	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Wolves	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 A
Bournemouth	L 1–2 A	W 4–0 H
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Everton	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 A
Fulham	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Points	16 of 30 · 1.60 per game	20 of 30 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Brighton wins2 draws6 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game0.80 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

2 Apr 2025Brighton0–3Aston Villa
30 Dec 2024Aston Villa2–2Brighton
5 May 2024Brighton1–0Aston Villa
30 Sep 2023Aston Villa6–1Brighton
28 May 2023Aston Villa2–1Brighton
13 Nov 2022Brighton1–2Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.62	1.23
Conceded per game	1.23	0.85
Match goals	2.85	2.08	2.90
Over 1.5	92%	62%
Over 2.5	62%	46%	55%
Over 3.5	23%	15%
Both teams scored	69%	38%	59%
Clean sheets	23%	38%
Failed to score	15%	38%
Games	13	13

	Brighton	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.70
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	3.00	2.50	2.90
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.31
Corners conceded	4.38	5.00
Match total	9.38	10.31	9.93
Over 8.5	62% 8/13	85% 11/13
Over 9.5	62% 8/13	77% 10/13
Over 10.5	54% 7/13	54% 7/13
Cards
Cards	2.54	1.62
Opponent cards	2.15	2.69
Match total	4.69	4.31	3.83
Over 3.5	69% 9/13	77% 10/13
Over 4.5	54% 7/13	46% 6/13

	Brighton	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	5.33
Corners conceded	5.00	3.78
Match total	10.60	9.11	9.93
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.50
Match total	4.40	3.70	3.83
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 121 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.31league 3.71

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+29%league 41%

Fouls23.1league 22.1

Penalties0.14league 0.20

Home wins48%league 50%

Brighton11 with this referee

Record5-4-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W19 May 25H · Liverpool3–21
D27 Dec 24H · Brentford0–00
D3 Apr 24A · Brentford0–01
L28 Feb 24A · Wolves0–12
L30 Sep 23A · Aston Villa1–64

Aston Villa12 with this referee

Record4-2-6 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W28 Sep 25H · Fulham3–11
L1 Feb 25A · Wolves0–23
W30 Sep 23H · Brighton6–14
L12 Aug 23A · Newcastle1–54
W1 Apr 23A · Chelsea2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.