Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Brighton had 13 days of rest, Brentford 13 and had to travel 71 km.
Away travel71 kmRest days13 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Brighton47%
Draw26%
Brentford27%
Brighton47%
Draw26%
Brentford27%
Brighton48%
Draw26%
Brentford27%
Brighton40%
Draw26%
Brentford34%
Brighton46%
Draw26%
Brentford27%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 139
Team strength
Brighton
Brentford
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
87
AttackIn forecast
73
85
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonBrentford
1.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
82%
Scored inContext
82%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.09
ShotsContext
10.64
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
38%
On target shareContext
42%
7.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
62%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.64
Shots allowedContext
12.18
3.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.55
2.30
BlocksContext
4.36
2.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
427
PassesContext
353
356
Accurate passesContext
275
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.36
FoulsContext
12.64
10.64
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
10.70
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
37%
On target shareContext
43%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
62%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.44
BlocksContext
4.60
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
67%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
427
PassesContext
354
354
Accurate passesContext
276
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.00
FoulsContext
12.40
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.22
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Brentford
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel71 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Brentford |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 71 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 143 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
24F. Kadıoğlu
21O. Boscagli
6J. van Hecke
27M. Wieffer
26Y. Ayari
17C. Baleba
25D. Gómez
10G. Rutter
11Y. Minteh
18D. Welbeck
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
20K. Ajer
4S. van den Berg
22N. Collins
33M. Kayode
18Y. Yarmoliuk
6J. Henderson
7K. Schade
24M. Damsgaard
19D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Brentford
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Brentford+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Brentford · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Manchester City | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Fulham | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Brighton wins3 draws2 Brentford wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets50% · 38%
- 19 Apr 2025Brentford4–2Brighton
- 27 Dec 2024Brighton0–0Brentford
- 3 Apr 2024Brentford0–0Brighton
- 6 Dec 2023Brighton2–1Brentford
- 1 Apr 2023Brighton3–3Brentford
- 14 Oct 2022Brentford2–0Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.55 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 3.09 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 64% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 18% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Brighton | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.09 | 5.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 9.09 | 9.63 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.91 | 4.09 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 6/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Brighton | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.60 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.20 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 139 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.63
Red cards0.14league 0.11
Cards 5+37%league 40%
Fouls21.8league 22.0
Penalties0.24league 0.18
Home wins40%league 52%
Brighton7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D20 Sep 25H · Tottenham2–21
- W14 Feb 25H · Chelsea3–01
- D31 Aug 24A · Arsenal1–12
- L13 Nov 22H · Aston Villa1–22
- D1 Dec 21A · West Ham1–11
Brentford3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D23 Nov 24A · Everton0–01
- L8 Apr 23H · Newcastle1–20
- L2 May 22A · Manchester United0–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton11 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Brentford11 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
