Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 12 · 15:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton 3rd · 16 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel345 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Brighton—%
Draw—%
Everton—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Brighton and Everton. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BrightonEverton
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
83 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
87 AttackIn forecast 61
85 DefenceIn forecast 66
94 Form indexContext 50
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—
Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BrightonEverton
3.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.37
1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
+1.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.23
100% Scored inContext 71%
71% Clean sheetsContext 43%
17.86 ShotsContext 14.43
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
34% On target shareContext 35%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.83
61% Box shareContext 68%
18% ConversionContext 8%
3.50 OffsidesContext 2.29
10.71 Shots allowedContext 13.71
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29
3.67 BlocksContext 5.00
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
70% Save rateContext 70%
60% PossessionIn forecast 47%
509 PassesContext 433
434 Accurate passesContext 361
85% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.25 Team ratingContext 6.98
12.86 FoulsContext 7.43
10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.71
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.26
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44
+0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
80% Scored inContext 70%
60% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.10 ShotsContext 13.40
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
34% On target shareContext 34%
11.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.89
65% Box shareContext 70%
15% ConversionContext 8%
2.57 OffsidesContext 2.25
9.80 Shots allowedContext 14.40
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.25 BlocksContext 5.44
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
72% Save rateContext 70%
61% PossessionIn forecast 47%
518 PassesContext 414
442 Accurate passesContext 342
85% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.88
11.70 FoulsContext 9.70
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km743 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 94 · 13 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +4.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Crystal Palace5–02.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Sunderland2–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Arsenal3–01.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Coventry5–01.7 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Leeds1–11.9 xPts
Everton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel345 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Brighton Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km345 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways743 km252 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 41 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Crystal Palace (H) 5–0, 18 Oct
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 24F. Kadıoğlu
14Chema Andrés 13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper 26Y. Ayari 25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Everton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl
11T. Barry

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Brighton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Everton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.25
Everton · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-3-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBrightonEverton
Crystal Palace W 5–0 H W 2–0 H
Chelsea L 3–4 A L 0–2 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Brighton wins3 draws4 Everton wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.60 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%
  • 31 Jan 2026Brighton1–1Everton
  • 24 Aug 2025Everton2–0Brighton
  • 25 Jan 2025Brighton0–1Everton
  • 17 Aug 2024Everton0–3Brighton
  • 24 Feb 2024Brighton1–1Everton
  • 4 Nov 2023Everton1–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BrightonEvertonForecast
Scored per game 3.291.14
Conceded per game 0.711.00
Match goals 4.002.14
Over 1.5 100%71%
Over 2.5 71%29%
Over 3.5 57%29%
Both teams scored 29%43%
Clean sheets 71%43%
Failed to score 0%29%
Games77
BrightonEvertonForecast
Scored per game 2.601.10
Conceded per game 0.901.30
Match goals 3.502.40
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 70%40%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 20%50%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BrightonEvertonLeague
Corners
Corners won5.715.33
Corners conceded5.006.00
Match total10.7111.339.49
Over 8.571% 5/767% 4/6
Over 9.571% 5/767% 4/6
Over 10.571% 5/767% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.291.71
Opponent cards1.572.29
Match total3.864.004.17
Over 3.557% 4/757% 4/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
BrightonEvertonLeague
Corners
Corners won6.115.78
Corners conceded4.785.56
Match total10.8911.349.49
Over 8.567% 6/967% 6/9
Over 9.567% 6/967% 6/9
Over 10.567% 6/967% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.701.90
Opponent cards1.501.90
Match total3.203.804.17
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Brighton7 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
4 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 76-90
Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 26 · conceded 9
6 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2 0-15
16-30
2 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Fulham Brentford Dec 1215:00 Liverpool Leeds Dec 1215:00 Arsenal Bournemouth Dec 1215:00 Manchester City Chelsea Dec 1215:00 Brighton Everton Dec 1215:00 Crystal Palace Manchester United Dec 1215:00 Ipswich Newcastle Dec 1215:00 Hull City Tottenham Dec 1215:00 Sunderland Nottingham Forest Dec 1215:00 Coventry Aston Villa Dec 1215:00