Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 12 · 15:00 Craven Cottage, London
Fulham 18th · 5 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Brentford 6th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel13 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Fulham—%
Draw—%
Brentford—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Fulham and Brentford. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

FulhamBrentford
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
65 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
66 AttackIn forecast 73
68 DefenceIn forecast 73
42 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fulham

Attack—
Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FulhamBrentford
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.73
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
-0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
71% Scored inContext 100%
29% Clean sheetsContext 29%
14.71 ShotsContext 15.00
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
32% On target shareContext 28%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.43
74% Box shareContext 76%
7% ConversionContext 12%
1.00 OffsidesContext 1.60
14.14 Shots allowedContext 15.43
4.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.43 BlocksContext 4.43
3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
66% Save rateContext 71%
57% PossessionIn forecast 45%
564 PassesContext 367
486 Accurate passesContext 283
86% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.85
10.43 FoulsContext 14.71
8.43 Fouls sufferedContext 9.29
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.71
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74
-0.61 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
15.10 ShotsContext 13.40
5.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
31% On target shareContext 27%
10.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
70% Box shareContext 74%
7% ConversionContext 12%
1.11 OffsidesContext 1.71
12.70 Shots allowedContext 17.30
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
3.89 BlocksContext 5.30
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
67% Save rateContext 72%
57% PossessionIn forecast 45%
548 PassesContext 369
472 Accurate passesContext 286
86% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83
10.60 FoulsContext 13.30
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fulham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Hull City1–02.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Ipswich1–21.4 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Manchester United1–11.2 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Liverpool0–00.8 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Crystal Palace2–31.6 xPts
Brentford
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel13 km515 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Liverpool1–21.5 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Aston Villa2–21.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Chelsea3–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Bournemouth2–21.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Fulham Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways573 km515 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 41 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fulham Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Hull City (H) 1–0, 17 Oct
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson 3C. Bassey 22D. Affengruber 21T. Castagne
19S. Charles 16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi 24J. King 14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Brentford Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 1–2, 17 Oct
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt 6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony 8M. Jensen 11D. Ouattara
9Thiago

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Fulham Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Brentford Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fulham · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.75
Brentford · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-3-0
Scored
1.67
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentFulhamBrentford
Liverpool D 0–0 A L 1–2 H
Sunderland L 0–1 A D 1–1 H
Chelsea L 2–3 H W 3–0 H
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Fulham wins2 draws2 Brentford wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.50 Over 2.575% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 38%
  • 18 Apr 2026Brentford0–0Fulham
  • 20 Sep 2025Fulham3–1Brentford
  • 18 May 2025Brentford2–3Fulham
  • 4 Nov 2024Fulham2–1Brentford
  • 4 May 2024Brentford0–0Fulham
  • 19 Aug 2023Fulham0–3Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FulhamBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 1.001.86
Conceded per game 1.431.14
Match goals 2.433.00
Over 1.5 57%100%
Over 2.5 43%71%
Over 3.5 29%29%
Both teams scored 57%71%
Clean sheets 29%29%
Failed to score 29%0%
Games77
FulhamBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 1.001.60
Conceded per game 1.201.40
Match goals 2.203.00
Over 1.5 60%100%
Over 2.5 30%70%
Over 3.5 20%30%
Both teams scored 50%70%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FulhamBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won6.433.86
Corners conceded4.295.14
Match total10.729.009.49
Over 8.557% 4/757% 4/7
Over 9.557% 4/757% 4/7
Over 10.543% 3/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.143.00
Opponent cards0.861.86
Match total3.004.864.17
Over 3.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
FulhamBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won6.804.00
Corners conceded4.106.40
Match total10.9010.409.49
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 10.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.202.70
Opponent cards1.202.20
Match total3.404.904.17
Over 3.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 4.540% 4/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Fulham7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 76-90
Brentford7 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
16-30
4 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
16-30
5 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Fulham Brentford Dec 1215:00 Liverpool Leeds Dec 1215:00 Arsenal Bournemouth Dec 1215:00 Manchester City Chelsea Dec 1215:00 Brighton Everton Dec 1215:00 Crystal Palace Manchester United Dec 1215:00 Ipswich Newcastle Dec 1215:00 Hull City Tottenham Dec 1215:00 Sunderland Nottingham Forest Dec 1215:00 Coventry Aston Villa Dec 1215:00