Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 12 · 15:00 Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal 2nd · 18 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel151 kmRest days2.8 · 1.8Matches / 14d4 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Arsenal—%
Draw—%
Bournemouth—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Arsenal and Bournemouth. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ArsenalBournemouth
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
94 Current StrengthIn forecast 77
86 AttackIn forecast 83
95 DefenceIn forecast 82
92 Form indexContext 74
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ArsenalBournemouth
1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86
1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.81
0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
86% Scored inContext 86%
57% Clean sheetsContext 14%
12.29 ShotsContext 15.14
4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
34% On target shareContext 34%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 9.57
73% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 9%
4.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
11.14 Shots allowedContext 9.57
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.00 BlocksContext 2.80
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
71% Save rateContext 55%
61% PossessionIn forecast 52%
520 PassesContext 433
453 Accurate passesContext 351
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.80
10.14 FoulsContext 13.00
15.86 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.82
0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.32
90% Scored inContext 90%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.50 ShotsContext 15.80
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10
34% On target shareContext 32%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
71% Box shareContext 62%
12% ConversionContext 10%
3.60 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.80 Shots allowedContext 10.30
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11
3.10 BlocksContext 3.29
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
75% Save rateContext 61%
57% PossessionIn forecast 53%
508 PassesContext 434
441 Accurate passesContext 353
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.06 Team ratingContext 6.86
11.20 FoulsContext 12.20
14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts
Bournemouth
Rest1.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel151 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load50%High
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Arsenal Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 43High · 50
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesYes
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec1.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways26 km301 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 62 / 4 / 6
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Arsenal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
Bournemouth · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentArsenalBournemouth
Sunderland W 2–0 A W 2–0 H
Chelsea W 2–1 H L 1–5 A
Points6 of 6 · 3.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Arsenal wins0 draws3 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.25 Over 2.588% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 13%
  • 11 Apr 2026Arsenal1–2Bournemouth
  • 3 Jan 2026Bournemouth2–3Arsenal
  • 3 May 2025Arsenal1–2Bournemouth
  • 19 Oct 2024Bournemouth2–0Arsenal
  • 4 May 2024Arsenal3–0Bournemouth
  • 30 Sep 2023Bournemouth0–4Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ArsenalBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 1.571.29
Conceded per game 0.711.86
Match goals 2.293.14
Over 1.5 71%86%
Over 2.5 57%57%
Over 3.5 0%43%
Both teams scored 29%71%
Clean sheets 57%14%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games77
ArsenalBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 1.701.50
Conceded per game 0.601.50
Match goals 2.303.00
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 0%30%
Both teams scored 30%70%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ArsenalBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won4.714.71
Corners conceded4.003.86
Match total8.718.579.49
Over 8.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 9.543% 3/729% 2/7
Over 10.529% 2/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.293.00
Opponent cards3.291.57
Match total4.584.574.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
ArsenalBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won4.674.60
Corners conceded4.444.60
Match total9.119.209.49
Over 8.544% 4/950% 5/10
Over 9.544% 4/940% 4/10
Over 10.533% 3/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.602.80
Opponent cards2.801.80
Match total4.404.604.17
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Arsenal6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
2 76-90
Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

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Fulham Brentford Dec 1215:00 Liverpool Leeds Dec 1215:00 Arsenal Bournemouth Dec 1215:00 Manchester City Chelsea Dec 1215:00 Brighton Everton Dec 1215:00 Crystal Palace Manchester United Dec 1215:00 Ipswich Newcastle Dec 1215:00 Hull City Tottenham Dec 1215:00 Sunderland Nottingham Forest Dec 1215:00 Coventry Aston Villa Dec 1215:00