Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 12 · 15:00 Anfield, Liverpool
Liverpool 5th · 12 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel104 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Liverpool—%
Draw—%
Leeds—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Liverpool)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Liverpool and Leeds. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LiverpoolLeeds
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
84 Current StrengthIn forecast 73
85 AttackIn forecast 69
84 DefenceIn forecast 77
87 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—
Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LiverpoolLeeds
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
71% Scored inContext 86%
43% Clean sheetsContext 29%
15.71 ShotsContext 12.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
32% On target shareContext 33%
8.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
55% Box shareContext 65%
8% ConversionContext 11%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.43
11.86 Shots allowedContext 14.00
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.86 BlocksContext 5.17
2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43
67% Save rateContext 86%
56% PossessionIn forecast 47%
482 PassesContext 385
408 Accurate passesContext 302
85% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.90 Team ratingContext 6.89
13.86 FoulsContext 12.71
10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86
2.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.86
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.29
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65
-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
80% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.40 ShotsContext 11.50
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
33% On target shareContext 31%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
62% Box shareContext 62%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.40
11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.90
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
3.20 BlocksContext 4.89
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
62% Save rateContext 77%
56% PossessionIn forecast 46%
487 PassesContext 376
417 Accurate passesContext 292
86% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.92
12.10 FoulsContext 11.90
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts
Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel104 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Liverpool Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 43Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km104 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways573 km115 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 61 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak
Leeds Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor 18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Liverpool Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-2-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.67
Leeds · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentLiverpoolLeeds
Brentford W 2–1 A D 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest D 2–2 H W 1–0 A
Newcastle D 2–2 A W 4–1 H
Points5 of 9 · 1.67 per game7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Liverpool wins3 draws1 Leeds wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.25 Over 2.575% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 13%
  • 1 Jan 2026Liverpool0–0Leeds
  • 6 Dec 2025Leeds3–3Liverpool
  • 17 Apr 2023Leeds1–6Liverpool
  • 29 Oct 2022Liverpool1–2Leeds
  • 23 Feb 2022Liverpool6–0Leeds
  • 12 Sep 2021Leeds0–3Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LiverpoolLeedsForecast
Scored per game 1.291.29
Conceded per game 1.140.86
Match goals 2.432.14
Over 1.5 71%71%
Over 2.5 57%29%
Over 3.5 29%14%
Both teams scored 43%71%
Clean sheets 43%29%
Failed to score 29%14%
Games77
LiverpoolLeedsForecast
Scored per game 1.801.10
Conceded per game 1.301.00
Match goals 3.102.10
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 60%30%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LiverpoolLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won4.864.00
Corners conceded4.434.14
Match total9.298.149.49
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.543% 3/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.711.86
Opponent cards2.432.43
Match total5.144.294.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/743% 3/7
LiverpoolLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won6.604.10
Corners conceded4.105.70
Match total10.709.809.49
Over 8.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 9.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 10.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.201.80
Opponent cards2.202.00
Match total4.403.804.17
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Liverpool7 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Fulham Brentford Dec 1215:00 Liverpool Leeds Dec 1215:00 Arsenal Bournemouth Dec 1215:00 Manchester City Chelsea Dec 1215:00 Brighton Everton Dec 1215:00 Crystal Palace Manchester United Dec 1215:00 Ipswich Newcastle Dec 1215:00 Hull City Tottenham Dec 1215:00 Sunderland Nottingham Forest Dec 1215:00 Coventry Aston Villa Dec 1215:00