Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest

Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 12 · 15:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland 20th · 4 pts · 7 played DLLLL

VS— Compare

Nottingham Forest 19th · 5 pts · 7 played DWLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel217 kmRest days1.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Sunderland—%

Draw—%

Nottingham Forest—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Sunderland)

Forecast from 27 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Nottingham Forest 3 Losses in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Sunderland

Nottingham Forest

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

62 AttackIn forecast 68

59 DefenceIn forecast 74

56 Form indexContext 41

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

Nottingham Forest

0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.85

57% Scored inContext 43%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

11.57 ShotsContext 17.14

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

35% On target shareContext 21%

7.29 Shots in the boxContext 10.43

62% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 4%

2.83 OffsidesContext 2.33

14.57 Shots allowedContext 10.57

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83

4.29 BlocksContext 3.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

46% Save rateContext 68%

48% PossessionIn forecast 46%

400 PassesContext 370

316 Accurate passesContext 292

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.43 FoulsContext 14.14

14.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

-0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.66

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.40 ShotsContext 16.30

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

30% On target shareContext 25%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

65% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 6%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.11

12.40 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.90 BlocksContext 4.40

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

52% Save rateContext 70%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

395 PassesContext 388

316 Accurate passesContext 309

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.70 FoulsContext 13.10

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland WLLWL

Rest1.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km3,003 km in 14d

Schedule load60%Critical

Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Bournemouth0–20.9 xPts
W15 OctA · Torreense2–11.8 xPts
L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts

Nottingham Forest DWLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel217 km207 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected

L18 OctH · Arsenal0–10.9 xPts
L11 OctA · Crystal Palace1–31.4 xPts
L19 SepH · Coventry0–12.1 xPts
W12 SepA · Aston Villa2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Critical · 60	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	1.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec	7Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	217 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,003 km	207 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 4 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–2, 18 Oct

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

28E. Le Fée 11C. Rigg 32T. Hume

57T. Tuterov

Nottingham Forest Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Arsenal (H) 0–1, 18 Oct

26M. Sels(G)

5Murillo 2O. Diomande 23Jair

3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz

14D. Ndoye 8N. Domínguez

19L. Delap

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Nottingham Forest Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 1.33

Nottingham Forest · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Sunderland	Nottingham Forest
Arsenal	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Sunderland wins0 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.50 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 50%

24 Apr 2026Sunderland0–5Nottingham Forest
27 Sep 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Sunderland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	Nottingham Forest
Scored per game	0.86	0.71
Conceded per game	2.00	1.29
Match goals	2.86	2.00
Over 1.5	86%	43%
Over 2.5	29%	43%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	43%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	43%	57%
Games	7	7

	Sunderland	Nottingham Forest
Scored per game	1.10	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	2.70	2.30
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	40%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	4.71
Corners conceded	4.14	4.86
Match total	8.43	9.57	9.49
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.14	2.29
Opponent cards	1.71	1.71
Match total	3.85	4.00	4.17
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7

	Sunderland	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.70
Corners conceded	3.80	4.50
Match total	9.20	9.20	9.49
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	4.60	3.50	4.17
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.