Brighton vs Tottenham – 20 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 15:00 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex

Brighton 13th · 4 pts · 4 played DLWL

2–2Full time

Tottenham 3rd · 9 pts · 4 played WWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Brighton had 7 days of rest, Tottenham 6.9 and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brighton45%

Draw26%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.27

Brighton45%

Draw27%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Brighton46%

Draw26%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.26

Brighton38%

Draw26%

Tottenham36%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.42

Brighton45%

Draw27%

Tottenham29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 131

Team strength

Brighton

Tottenham

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 71

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

87 AttackIn forecast 56

85 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brighton

Tottenham

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.25

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.71 Goals minus xGContext +0.77

75% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 75%

10.25 ShotsContext 11.75

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

42% On target shareContext 36%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.75

70% Box shareContext 72%

10% ConversionContext 17%

3.33 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.75 Shots allowedContext 12.75

3.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

1.75 BlocksContext 3.67

1.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

54% Save rateContext 94%

49% PossessionIn forecast 58%

401 PassesContext 463

327 Accurate passesContext 392

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.19

14.25 FoulsContext 12.50

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.90 ShotsContext 8.20

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60

41% On target shareContext 32%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.63

65% Box shareContext 69%

15% ConversionContext 16%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.63

11.60 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44

2.80 BlocksContext 4.33

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

63% Save rateContext 80%

51% PossessionIn forecast 46%

430 PassesContext 364

362 Accurate passesContext 295

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.70 FoulsContext 13.30

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km255 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tottenham

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel72 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brighton	Tottenham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	255 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 34J. Veltman

26Y. Ayari 17C. Baleba

22K. Mitoma 8B. Gruda 11Y. Minteh

10G. Rutter

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1G. Vicario(G)

13I. Udogie 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

30R. Bentancur 6João Palhinha 15L. Bergvall

28W. Odobert 9Richarlison 20M. Kudus

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brighton Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Tottenham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brighton-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Tottenham+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Tottenham · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Brighton	Tottenham
Bournemouth	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Manchester City	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Brighton wins0 draws5 Tottenham wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

25 May 2025Tottenham1–4Brighton
6 Oct 2024Brighton3–2Tottenham
10 Feb 2024Tottenham2–1Brighton
28 Dec 2023Brighton4–2Tottenham
8 Apr 2023Tottenham2–1Brighton
8 Oct 2022Brighton0–1Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brighton	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.50	0.25
Match goals	2.50	2.25	2.90
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	75%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	75%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

	Brighton	Tottenham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.50	0.25
Match goals	2.50	2.25	2.90
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	75%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	75%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brighton	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	7.00
Corners conceded	2.75	4.67
Match total	6.00	11.67	9.53
Over 8.5	0% 0/4	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	0% 0/4	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.75
Opponent cards	3.25	1.50
Match total	6.25	3.25	3.60
Over 3.5	100% 4/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4

	Brighton	Tottenham	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	4.67
Corners conceded	3.20	5.78
Match total	7.90	10.45	9.53
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	4.30	4.00	3.60
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 131 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.89league 3.54

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 41%

Fouls21.7league 22.5

Penalties0.25league 0.29

Home wins39%league 51%

Brighton6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 2

W14 Feb 25H · Chelsea3–01
D31 Aug 24A · Arsenal1–12
L13 Nov 22H · Aston Villa1–22
D1 Dec 21A · West Ham1–11
W1 May 21H · Leeds2–01

Tottenham11 with this referee

Record5-3-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.6 Pens for · against2 · 1

L11 May 25H · Crystal Palace0–21
D29 Dec 24H · Wolves2–21
W29 Sep 24A · Manchester United3–03
D19 Aug 24A · Leicester1–11
L14 May 24H · Manchester City0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.