Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 7 · 14:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 55). Brighton had 3.8 days of rest, West Ham 2.8 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Brighton60%
Draw22%
West Ham18%
Brighton59%
Draw23%
West Ham18%
Brighton60%
Draw22%
West Ham17%
Brighton52%
Draw25%
West Ham23%
Brighton59%
Draw23%
West Ham18%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 132
Team strength
Brighton
West Ham
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
87
AttackIn forecast
68
85
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonWest Ham
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
86%
Scored inContext
64%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
7%
12.86
ShotsContext
9.86
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
38%
On target shareContext
36%
7.93
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.80
OffsidesContext
2.18
11.43
Shots allowedContext
15.36
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
2.77
BlocksContext
4.77
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
445
PassesContext
372
371
Accurate passesContext
296
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.86
FoulsContext
10.57
10.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.43
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.90
ShotsContext
9.50
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
37%
On target shareContext
32%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
60%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.70
Shots allowedContext
16.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.22
BlocksContext
5.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
462
PassesContext
358
388
Accurate passesContext
279
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.90
FoulsContext
11.70
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km487 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec | 2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 487 km | 524 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
29M. De Cuyper
5L. Dunk
6J. van Hecke
27M. Wieffer
25D. Gómez
17C. Baleba
24F. Kadıoğlu
10G. Rutter
11Y. Minteh
18D. Welbeck
West Ham
Confirmed XI
23A. Areola(G)
25J. Todibo
3M. Kilman
15K. Mavropanos
12E. Diouf
24G. Rodríguez
18Mateus Fernandes
29A. Wan-Bissaka
10Lucas Paquetá
7C. Summerville
20J. Bowen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- West Ham+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
2.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 2.14
- Conceded
- 1.43
West Ham · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Brentford | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Leeds | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 2–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 A | L 1–5 H |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Everton | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Brighton wins5 draws1 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.10
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 26 Apr 2025Brighton3–2West Ham
- 21 Dec 2024West Ham1–1Brighton
- 2 Jan 2024West Ham0–0Brighton
- 26 Aug 2023Brighton1–3West Ham
- 4 Mar 2023Brighton4–0West Ham
- 21 Aug 2022West Ham0–2Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 3.14 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 7% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Brighton | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.90 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 12.07 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 86% 12/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 9/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 8/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 3.29 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Brighton | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 11.40 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 132 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.67
Red cards0.06league 0.12
Cards 5+36%league 40%
Fouls21.7league 22.0
Penalties0.17league 0.20
Home wins49%league 50%
Brighton14 with this referee
Record4-6-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W27 Sep 25A · Chelsea3–15
- D15 Mar 25A · Manchester City2–25
- L1 Feb 25A · Nottingham Forest0–73
- W17 Aug 24A · Everton3–01
- D13 Apr 24A · Burnley1–12
West Ham8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D28 Sep 24A · Brentford1–13
- W26 Feb 24H · Brentford4–21
- W23 Dec 23H · Manchester United2–02
- L28 May 23A · Leicester1–21
- L14 Jan 23A · Wolves0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton14 games · scored 24 · conceded 20
3
0-15
1
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
10
5
76-90
West Ham14 games · scored 16 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
6
46-60
1
6
61-75
8
5
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
9
4
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
