Burnley
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Burnley32.5%fair odds 3.08
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.76
Crystal Palace40.9%fair odds 2.45
Expected goals1.29 – 1.48total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Burnley ↓ · Crystal Palace → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Burnley goals, columns Crystal Palace goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.93
- 1–28.8%11.32
- 0–18.6%11.57
- 2–17.7%12.93
- 1–07.5%13.36
- 0–06.9%14.44
- 0–26.8%14.62
- 2–25.7%17.53
- 2–05.2%19.07
- 1–34.3%23.02
Winning margin
4.9%
Burnley by 3+
fair 20.27
9.5%
Burnley by 2
fair 10.56
18.1%
Burnley by 1
fair 5.52
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.76
20.8%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.81
12.4%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 8.09
7.7%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 12.91
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Burnley goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Crystal Palace goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 32.5% | 32.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Crystal Palace win | 40.9% | 40.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 50.4% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 55.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Burnley | 1.29 | 1.26 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 1.48 | 1.43 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Burnley win32.5%3.08
- Draw26.6%3.76
- Crystal Palace win40.9%2.45
- Double chance Burnley or draw59.1%1.69
- Double chance Burnley or Crystal Palace73.4%1.36
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw67.5%1.48
- Draw no bet Burnley44.3%2.26
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace55.7%1.80
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.80
- Under 1.523.0%4.34
- Under 2.547.7%2.09
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.30
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- Burnley win and yes16.6%6.04
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- Crystal Palace win and yes20.3%4.92
Team goals
- Burnley over 0.572.5%1.38
- Burnley over 1.537.0%2.70
- Burnley over 2.514.1%7.10
- Crystal Palace over 0.577.1%1.30
- Crystal Palace over 1.543.4%2.30
- Crystal Palace over 2.518.5%5.41
- Burnley clean sheet22.9%4.37
- Crystal Palace clean sheet27.5%3.64
- Burnley win to nil16.0%6.27
- Crystal Palace win to nil20.6%4.86
Handicap
- Burnley −1.514.4%6.94
- Burnley −2.54.9%20.27
- Crystal Palace +1.585.6%1.17
- Crystal Palace +2.595.1%1.05
- Crystal Palace −1.520.1%4.97
- Burnley +1.579.9%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored133
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result40.4%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right57.1%
BTTS called right52.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.2% | 52.6% |
| 40–50% | 52 | 44.9% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.1% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 72.9% | 63.6% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 103 of 133 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5849 | 0.5674 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 56.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 103 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham53·24·23
- ✓Fulham 4–5 Manchester City25·24·51
- ✗Bournemouth 0–1 Everton48·25·27
- ✗Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal31·25·44
- ✓Aston Villa 1–0 Wolves73·17·10
- ✓Nottingham Forest 0–2 Brighton36·26·38
- ✓West Ham 0–2 Liverpool21·23·55
- ✗Crystal Palace 1–2 Manchester United48·25·26
- ✗Tottenham 1–2 Fulham49·25·26
- ✓Everton 1–4 Newcastle36·27·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 133 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.