Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Crystal Palace were slight favourites.
Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 58). Burnley had 4.2 days of rest, Crystal Palace 3.3 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days4.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Burnley33%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace41%
Burnley33%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace40%
Burnley33%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace41%
Burnley26%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace48%
Burnley32%
Draw27%
Crystal Palace41%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Kirk
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 20
Team strength
Burnley
Crystal Palace
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
27
AttackIn forecast
64
25
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyCrystal Palace
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
2.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
2.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
69%
Scored inContext
69%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
8.00
ShotsContext
12.23
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.31
38%
On target shareContext
35%
4.62
Shots in the boxContext
8.62
56%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.00
Shots allowedContext
10.92
5.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.69
BlocksContext
2.82
3.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
68%
Save rateContext
73%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
358
PassesContext
362
276
Accurate passesContext
279
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.66
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.92
FoulsContext
10.54
9.54
Fouls sufferedContext
11.08
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
2.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.54
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.70
ShotsContext
13.70
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
29%
4.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
53%
Box shareContext
73%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.10
17.00
Shots allowedContext
9.20
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.80
BlocksContext
2.14
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
67%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
364
PassesContext
381
283
Accurate passesContext
293
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.30
FoulsContext
11.50
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km576 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel292 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 576 km | 363 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
16Florentino
24J. Cullen
17L. Tchaouna
9L. Foster
19Z. Flemming
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
6A. Guéhi
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
8J. Lerma
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
10Yeremy Pino
18Daichi Kamada
14J. Mateta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.00
Crystal Palace · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| West Ham | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Wolves | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 7 of 30 · 0.70 per game | 18 of 30 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Burnley wins2 draws2 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 24 Feb 2024Crystal Palace3–0Burnley
- 4 Nov 2023Burnley0–2Crystal Palace
- 26 Feb 2022Crystal Palace1–1Burnley
- 20 Nov 2021Burnley3–3Crystal Palace
- 13 Feb 2021Crystal Palace0–3Burnley
- 23 Nov 2020Burnley1–0Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.08 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 2.15 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 46% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 8% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Burnley | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.30 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.85 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.62 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.47 | 9.23 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.69 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.31 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.30 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 6/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 15% 2/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Burnley | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.70 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.10 | 9.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.90 | 3.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Kirk 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 3.71
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+45%league 41%
Fouls21.9league 22.1
Penalties0.20league 0.20
Home wins45%league 50%
BurnleyNo previous matches with this referee.
Crystal PalaceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley13 games · scored 15 · conceded 27
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
10
76-90
Crystal Palace13 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
6
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
9
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
