Burnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were clear favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 62). Burnley had 15 days of rest, Liverpool 13.9 and had to travel 65 km.
Away travel65 kmRest days15 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Burnley18%
Draw22%
Liverpool61%
Burnley19%
Draw24%
Liverpool58%
Burnley18%
Draw22%
Liverpool60%
Burnley13%
Draw19%
Liverpool68%
Burnley18%
Draw23%
Liverpool59%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 180
Team strength
Burnley
Liverpool
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
27
AttackIn forecast
85
25
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BurnleyLiverpool
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
2.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+1.53
67%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
33%
On target shareContext
52%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
63%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
24%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.00
Shots allowedContext
10.33
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
4.33
BlocksContext
4.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.00
69%
Save rateContext
43%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
335
PassesContext
457
254
Accurate passesContext
380
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.04
8.67
FoulsContext
9.67
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.30
ShotsContext
15.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
42%
On target shareContext
36%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
62%
Box shareContext
71%
18%
ConversionContext
14%
3.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.20
BlocksContext
3.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
69%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
434
PassesContext
491
358
Accurate passesContext
419
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.07
9.60
FoulsContext
10.60
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Burnley
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel65 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Burnley |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.9Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 65 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman
5M. Estève
18H. Ekdal
29J. Laurent
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
8L. Ugochukwu
24J. Cullen
17L. Tchaouna
9L. Foster
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
8D. Szoboszlai
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Burnley
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Burnley-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Liverpool+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Burnley · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Liverpool · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Burnley wins0 draws5 Liverpool wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets17% · 67%
- 10 Feb 2024Liverpool3–1Burnley
- 26 Dec 2023Burnley0–2Liverpool
- 13 Feb 2022Burnley0–1Liverpool
- 21 Aug 2021Liverpool2–0Burnley
- 19 May 2021Burnley0–3Liverpool
- 21 Jan 2021Liverpool0–1Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Burnley | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 4.00 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Burnley | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 4.00 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Burnley | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 10.66 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 2.34 | 4.33 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Burnley | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.78 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.30 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 180 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.61
Red cards0.14league 0.11
Cards 5+34%league 42%
Fouls22.4league 22.8
Penalties0.29league 0.29
Home wins42%league 50%
Burnley7 with this referee
Record1-1-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L16 Aug 25A · Tottenham0–30
- L6 Apr 24A · Everton0–12
- L11 Nov 23A · Arsenal1–31
- L10 Apr 22A · Norwich0–21
- D29 Aug 21H · Leeds1–14
Liverpool19 with this referee
Record6-7-6
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against7 · 1
Reds1
- D12 Feb 25A · Everton2–24
- D5 Jan 25H · Manchester United2–22
- L14 Sep 24H · Nottingham Forest0–14
- D10 Mar 24H · Manchester City1–10
- W17 Feb 24A · Brentford4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Burnley3 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Liverpool3 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
3
4
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
5
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
