Burnley
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Burnley17.6%fair odds 5.67
Draw21.7%fair odds 4.61
Liverpool60.7%fair odds 1.65
Expected goals1.03 – 2.06total 3.09
Likeliest score1–110.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Liverpool
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Burnley ↓ · Liverpool → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Burnley goals, columns Liverpool goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%9.85
- 1–29.9%10.06
- 0–29.7%10.36
- 0–18.9%11.30
- 1–36.8%14.63
- 0–36.6%15.06
- 2–25.1%19.53
- 0–05.0%19.80
- 2–15.0%20.15
- 1–04.2%24.03
Winning margin
1.8%
Burnley by 3+
fair 56.70
4.6%
Burnley by 2
fair 21.59
11.2%
Burnley by 1
fair 8.91
21.7%
Draw
fair 4.61
23.0%
Liverpool by 1
fair 4.35
18.6%
Liverpool by 2
fair 5.38
19.1%
Liverpool by 3+
fair 5.24
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Burnley goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
Liverpool goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 17.6% | 18.1% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 21.7% | 23.3% | -1.6 pp |
| Liverpool win | 60.7% | 58.6% | +2.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 54.0% | +5.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 52.7% | +3.9 pp |
| Expected goals Burnley | 1.03 | 0.96 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Liverpool | 2.06 | 1.88 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Burnley win17.6%5.67
- Draw21.7%4.61
- Liverpool win60.7%1.65
- Double chance Burnley or draw39.3%2.54
- Double chance Burnley or Liverpool78.3%1.28
- Double chance Liverpool or draw82.4%1.21
- Draw no bet Burnley22.5%4.44
- Draw no bet Liverpool77.5%1.29
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.581.9%1.22
- Over 2.559.7%1.67
- Over 3.537.3%2.68
- Over 4.520.1%4.99
- Under 1.518.1%5.54
- Under 2.540.3%2.48
- Under 3.562.7%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.31
- Yes and over 2.546.5%2.15
- Burnley win and yes10.0%10.03
- Draw and yes16.7%6.00
- Liverpool win and yes30.0%3.33
Team goals
- Burnley over 0.564.3%1.56
- Burnley over 1.527.5%3.63
- Burnley over 2.58.6%11.65
- Liverpool over 0.587.3%1.15
- Liverpool over 1.561.1%1.64
- Liverpool over 2.534.0%2.94
- Burnley clean sheet12.7%7.87
- Liverpool clean sheet35.7%2.80
- Burnley win to nil7.7%13.06
- Liverpool win to nil30.7%3.26
Handicap
- Burnley −1.56.4%15.64
- Burnley −2.51.8%56.70
- Liverpool +1.593.6%1.07
- Liverpool +2.598.2%1.02
- Liverpool −1.537.7%2.66
- Burnley +1.562.3%1.60
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored38
Favourite won52.6%
Avg chance given to result39.6%
1X2 Brier0.602
Over 2.5 called right47.4%
BTTS called right34.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 45.1% | 53.3% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 53.3% | 44.4% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 65.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 71.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 8 of 38 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5982 | 0.5385 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 62.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 8 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 38 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.