Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Casa Pia were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Casa Pia had 6.2 days of rest, Estoril 6 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Casa Pia44%
Draw28%
Estoril29%
Casa Pia45%
Draw27%
Estoril28%
Casa Pia44%
Draw28%
Estoril29%
Casa Pia37%
Draw28%
Estoril35%
Casa Pia45%
Draw27%
Estoril28%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Casa Pia
Estoril
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
13
AttackIn forecast
21
25
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaEstoril
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
57%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.43
ShotsContext
11.29
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
29%
On target shareContext
33%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
47%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.57
Shots allowedContext
13.14
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
3.86
BlocksContext
3.00
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
66%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
313
PassesContext
381
237
Accurate passesContext
298
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.29
FoulsContext
13.00
16.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
3.29
Yellow cardsContext
3.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.90
ShotsContext
10.60
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
29%
On target shareContext
37%
4.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
53%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.57
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.00
BlocksContext
3.11
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
69%
Save rateContext
60%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
310
PassesContext
393
234
Accurate passesContext
309
75%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
15.30
FoulsContext
13.50
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel81 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 642 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 23.1 | 22.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
22Daniel Azevedo(G)
43David Sousa
6José Fonte
27Kaique Rocha
18André Geraldes
42S. Pérez
74Renato Nhaga
72Gaizka Larrazabal
14Miguel Sousa
10Dailon Livramento
29J. Livolant
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
4Ferro
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
24Pedro Amaral
10J. Holsgrove
7N. Lominadze
22Pedro Carvalho
12João Carvalho
9A. Marqués
99R. Guitane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Estoril · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Casa Pia wins2 draws3 Estoril wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 29 Apr 2025Casa Pia1–3Estoril
- 15 Dec 2024Estoril0–2Casa Pia
- 8 Apr 2024Casa Pia0–0Estoril
- 10 Nov 2023Estoril4–0Casa Pia
- 21 May 2023Casa Pia2–2Estoril
- 16 Jan 2023Estoril2–0Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.71 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Casa Pia | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.71 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 8.50 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.29 | 3.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.86 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 6.15 | 5.43 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Casa Pia | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.11 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 5.30 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 5.06
Red cards0.00league 0.24
Cards 5+0%league 62%
Fouls28.0league 27.9
Penalties0.00league 0.41
Home wins100%league 35%
Casa PiaNo previous matches with this referee.
EstorilNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia7 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
76-90
Estoril7 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
