Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente – 13 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 13 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Casa Pia 15th · 9 pts · 13 played LLDLL

1–1Full time

GIL Vicente 4th · 24 pts · 13 played WWDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 21). Casa Pia had 7 days of rest, GIL Vicente 4.8 and had to travel 246 km.

Away travel246 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Casa Pia35%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.28

Casa Pia35%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36

Casa Pia35%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.28

Casa Pia28%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente44%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.43

Casa Pia35%

Draw27%

GIL Vicente37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rio Maior)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 1.33
Matches 3

Team strength

Casa Pia

GIL Vicente

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

13 AttackIn forecast 32

25 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

GIL Vicente

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.23

2.08 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.46

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

54% Scored inContext 69%

15% Clean sheetsContext 69%

8.23 ShotsContext 12.62

3.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.15

34% On target shareContext 33%

4.42 Shots in the boxContext 7.15

53% Box shareContext 57%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.63

13.23 Shots allowedContext 10.85

4.77 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.62 BlocksContext 2.60

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.42

57% Save rateContext 85%

46% PossessionIn forecast 47%

336 PassesContext 345

260 Accurate passesContext 275

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.86

14.00 FoulsContext 15.15

16.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.08

3.15 Yellow cardsContext 2.92

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 70%

8.30 ShotsContext 12.10

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

35% On target shareContext 35%

4.56 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

55% Box shareContext 55%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.70 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.30 BlocksContext 2.71

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

55% Save rateContext 87%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

352 PassesContext 356

274 Accurate passesContext 284

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.89

14.10 FoulsContext 15.70

16.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GIL Vicente

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel246 km57 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec	4.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	246 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	57 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Confirmed XI

3-4-3

33Ricardo Batista(G)

43David Sousa 6José Fonte 18André Geraldes

5A. Conté 20Y. Oukili 42S. Pérez 72Gaizka Larrazabal

7K. Nsona 10Dailon Livramento 29J. Livolant

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

42Andrew(G)

3G. Konan 39Jonathan Buatu 48Espigares 2Zé Carlos

10Luís Esteves 5F. Cáseres

11Joelson Fernandes 95Santi García 77Murilo

89Gustavo Varela

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Absences are shown before kick-off

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GIL Vicente+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 0.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.33

GIL Vicente · Away 1.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-1
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 0.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente
Santa Clara	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Alverca	L 0–2 H	W 4–0 A
Benfica	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Estrela	L 3–5 H	W 2–0 H
SC Braga	L 0–4 A	W 1–0 A
Estoril	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 H
Moreirense	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Famalicao	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 A
Nacional	L 0–2 H	W 2–0 A
FC Porto	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 H
AVS	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
Points	6 of 33 · 0.55 per game	23 of 33 · 2.09 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Casa Pia wins2 draws3 GIL Vicente wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.17 Over 2.517% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 50%

22 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0GIL Vicente
22 Sep 2024GIL Vicente1–1Casa Pia
3 Mar 2024Casa Pia0–0GIL Vicente
2 Oct 2023GIL Vicente2–0Casa Pia
27 May 2023GIL Vicente1–0Casa Pia
22 Jan 2023Casa Pia1–3GIL Vicente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.23
Conceded per game	2.08	0.46
Match goals	3.08	1.69	2.52
Over 1.5	92%	62%
Over 2.5	46%	15%	46%
Over 3.5	38%	8%
Both teams scored	38%	15%	52%
Clean sheets	15%	69%
Failed to score	46%	31%
Games	13	13

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	2.10	0.40
Match goals	3.20	1.80	2.52
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	46%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	20%	52%
Clean sheets	10%	70%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.40
Corners conceded	5.25	4.80
Match total	9.25	10.20	9.11
Over 8.5	58% 7/12	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 6/12	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	3.23	3.15
Opponent cards	3.08	2.54
Match total	6.31	5.69	5.54
Over 3.5	92% 12/13	85% 11/13
Over 4.5	77% 10/13	69% 9/13

	Casa Pia	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	5.43
Corners conceded	4.80	4.00
Match total	9.20	9.43	9.11
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	3.30	3.20
Opponent cards	3.20	2.30
Match total	6.50	5.50	5.54
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 5.20

Red cards0.33league 0.29

Cards 5+67%league 64%

Fouls25.0league 27.6

Penalties1.33league 0.47

Home wins67%league 35%

Casa Pia

No previous matches with this referee.

GIL Vicente1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W4 Oct 25H · Estrela2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.