Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 23). Casa Pia had 6.9 days of rest, Guimaraes 4.8 and had to travel 241 km.
Away travel241 kmRest days6.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Casa Pia31%
Draw28%
Guimaraes41%
Casa Pia31%
Draw27%
Guimaraes42%
Casa Pia31%
Draw28%
Guimaraes41%
Casa Pia25%
Draw27%
Guimaraes48%
Casa Pia31%
Draw27%
Guimaraes42%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Casa Pia
Guimaraes
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
13
AttackIn forecast
28
25
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaGuimaraes
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
60%
Scored inContext
60%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.07
ShotsContext
12.60
3.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
35%
On target shareContext
29%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
55%
Box shareContext
52%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.23
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.13
4.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.53
3.47
BlocksContext
3.31
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
57%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
332
PassesContext
360
257
Accurate passesContext
296
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.40
FoulsContext
13.87
15.07
Fouls sufferedContext
14.87
3.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.47
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
70%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
7.90
ShotsContext
12.80
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
35%
On target shareContext
28%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
59%
Box shareContext
52%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.30
BlocksContext
3.89
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
52%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
345
PassesContext
355
272
Accurate passesContext
293
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.10
FoulsContext
14.10
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Guimaraes
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel241 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 4.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 241 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
5A. Conté
43David Sousa
6José Fonte
18André Geraldes
74Renato Nhaga
8Rafael Brito
29J. Livolant
20Y. Oukili
72Gaizka Larrazabal
10Dailon Livramento
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
17O. Lebedenko
26R. Abascal
3M. Nóbrega
2Miguel Maga
30Gonçalo Nogueira
6Matija Mitrović
48N. Saviolo
20Samu
18Telmo Arcanjo
19O. Camara
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.14
Guimaraes · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-4
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Alverca | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Benfica | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Estrela | L 3–5 H | W 2–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Famalicao | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Arouca | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| AVS | W 2–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 13 of 42 · 0.93 per game | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Casa Pia wins3 draws1 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game0.67 – 0.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets67% · 50%
- 1 Mar 2025Guimaraes1–0Casa Pia
- 28 Sep 2024Casa Pia1–1Guimaraes
- 24 Feb 2024Guimaraes0–2Casa Pia
- 23 Sep 2023Casa Pia0–0Guimaraes
- 19 Feb 2023Casa Pia0–0Guimaraes
- 29 Aug 2022Guimaraes0–1Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.93 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.47 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Casa Pia | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.30 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.36 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.07 | 8.07 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.87 | 3.27 | |
| Match total | 6.07 | 5.87 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 93% 14/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 73% 11/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Casa Pia | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.50 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 5.15
Red cards0.00league 0.30
Cards 5+67%league 62%
Fouls29.0league 27.4
Penalties0.33league 0.45
Home wins33%league 36%
Casa Pia1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Oct 25H · Estoril2–23
GuimaraesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia14 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
2
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Guimaraes15 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
